February 12, 2024
Summary: There is an abundant amount of high, thin clouds from Fresno County north at this hour with mostly clear skies in the south valley. Temperatures as of 1:00 pm are generally in the mid to upper 50s with warmest locations around the 60 degree mark. Temperatures tonight will be generally in the 30s. Only the coldest locations will be at or slightly above freezing. The weak dome of high pressure currently over California will give way to a weak trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest and northern California late Wednesday night and Thursday. It’s possible a few light showers could spread as far south as Fresno County, however if measurable precipitation does occur, expect less than one-tenth of an inch. California will again be the center of the weather universe beginning Saturday and lasting through Wednesday of next week. a very intense low pressure system will approach the northern and central California coast Friday night with an atmospheric river of air developing during the second half of the weekend and lasting through the first couple of days of next week. Just where this flow will come on shore is up for speculation this far out. Sunday night through Monday night may see the heaviest precipitation of this siege. Also, the surface model for Sunday through Tuesday is quite interesting. Intense low pressure shows up on models off the central coast late Sunday through Monday, setting the stage for another high wind episode, especially Sunday and Monday. the placement of the low will be critical for both wind velocity and where strong winds occur. Models this afternoon show the surface flow further south than previous models which could set the stage for strong east to southeast winds. We’ll continue to watch all of this and tweak the forecast as changes become apparent.
Forecast: Party cloudy this afternoon through tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday into Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night leading to a small chance of light showers from Fresno County north Thursday. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night through Friday. Increasing clouds Friday night with a slight chance of showers after midnight. Periods of rain Saturday through Monday with strong gusty winds Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 35/63/37/65 | Reedley 34/64/36/65 | Dinuba 33/62/35/64 |
| Porterville 34/64/36/66 | Lindsay 33/64/35/66 | Delano 36/64/37/65 |
| Bakersfield 39/65/41/66 | Taft 41/59/42/61 | Arvin 36/64/37/66 |
| Lamont 35/63/38/66 | Pixley 36/63/37/65 | Tulare 33/63/36/64 |
| Woodlake 33/62/35/65 | Hanford 34/63/36/65 | Orosi 33/63/35/65 |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of calm conditions through Thursday. We’re still looking down the road at some possible strong winds late Monday into Tuesday. Surface models for that time frame are depicting significant differences in pressure between off shore northern and central California and Nevada. These models are quite similar to those of a week or so ago which resulted in locally damaging winds in Kern County. So far, the difference is not quite as strong as the earlier storm but don’t be surprised if 50-60 mph gusts are in the forecast for late Sunday into Tuesday in the extreme south valley and 40 mph gusts along the west side but locally elsewhere.
Rain: There will be a small chance of a few light showers from late Wednesday night through Thursday, mainly from Fresno County north. If measurable rain occurs at all, expect less than .10 and that will mainly be measured in Merced County. Dry weather will return Thursday night through Friday evening. A major weather event will occur beginning Saturday, lasting through Wednesday of next week. rain will begin spreading on shore late Friday night with periods of rain Saturday and possibly all the way through next Wednesday. There will be a pineapple connection associated with this storm. Where it will come on shore is quite speculative this far out, but with saturated soil from the last storm, flooding may become a problem. In any case, substantial amounts of precipitation is expected for central California. The fact that we are talking 4 to 5 days of rain means the southern Sierra Nevada will have a magnificent chance of catching up with snowfall deficits.
Frost: Most locations tonight will range from 33 to 38 degrees. Coldest low spots will dip into the lower 30s, but no significant below freezing conditions will occur. I had thought earlier today that cloud cover would help moderate temperatures tonight, but analyzing visible satellite imagery, we find these clouds are rather sparse and thin. Slow moderation of the overall environment will continue as we progress through the week.