February 16, 2024
Summary A weak ridge of upper level high pressure currently resides over California while the first of two winter storms lurks well off shore. The first system is the weaker of the two and will spread rain on shore Saturday morning. It appears precipitation will not reach the valley until sometime Saturday afternoon or even during the late evening hours Saturday. Both of these storms have an AR connected to them. The first atmospheric river of air will move on shore along the northern California coast north of the Bay Area. With that in mind. It appears precipitation in the valley will be fairly light with this first event. The second storm is a very slow mover and contains much more of a wallop. This system will be off the northern California coast from Sunday through Wednesday of next weekend. The second AR will move on shore late Sunday night and Monday. this system will move on shore between Santa Barbara County on the south to Monterey County on the north. This one promises very heavy precipitation for the Sierra Nevada. During the last series of storms two weeks ago, much of the south valley received just light precipitation because of rain shadowing along the valley facing portion of the Kern County mountains and Coast Range. Each of these events has its own personality but the configuration on surface models does favor strong rain shadows in the south valley. Yet a third atmospheric river shows up on models Tuesday night and Wednesday. This one is aimed more towards southern California. The pattern will finally change by Thursday morning, bringing this event to a halt. Weak upper level high pressure will dominate our weather from Thursday through the weekend and beyond for the next several days
Forecast: Partly cloudy today and tonight with patchy fog this morning. increasing cloudiness Saturday with showers becoming likely by sunset or shortly thereafter. Periods of rain Saturday night. mostly to partly cloudy Sunday morning with an increasing chance of rain late afternoon. Rain at times Sunday night through Tuesday night, possibly locally heavy at times north of Kern County Sunday night through Monday night. partly cloudy Wednesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/46/67/49/71 | Reedley 66/47/67/50/69 | Dinuba 64/45/67/49/68 |
| Porterville 66/47/69/50/71` | Lindsay 66/46/69/49/70 | Delano 67/57/69/60/71 |
| Bakersfield 67/49/69/51/71 | Taft 64/51/67/52/68 | Arvin 67/48/68/50/71 |
| Lamont 67/47/69/51/70 | Pixley d65/45/67/49/70 | Tulare 65/46/67/49/69 |
| Woodlake 65/46/67/48/70 | Hanford 66/47/68/50/71 | Orosi 65/46/67/49/69 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Periods of rain 52/67 | Tuesday Periods of rain 51/67 | Wednesday Showers likely 45/63 | Thursday Partly cloudy 40/64 | Friday Partly cloudy 39/65 |
Two Week Forecast: February 22 through February 28: This model is not nearly as bullish on the idea of precipitation spreading down the central valley, although it doesn’t completely eliminate the chance of rain. It does appear we’re heading into a drier pattern. temperatures are expected to be near to marginally below average.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds through tonight will be variable to 6 mph with periods of calm conditions. Winds Saturday will be out of the east to southeast at around 5 to 12 mph. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 possible. Winds late Sunday through Monday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts are possible to 35 mph along the west side. There’s a chance of gusts to 55 mph in the south valley, mainly in the south valley.
Rain: It appears the first rains will not reach the west side of the valley until sunset Saturday, perhaps a little later. Expect periods of rain Saturday night with a lull Sunday morning. the heaviest precipitation will begin Sunday night, continuing at times Sunday night through Monday night. rain will continue at times Tuesday and Tuesday night, turning to showers Wednesday. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and beyond. Rainfall amounts in eastern Merced County between Saturday night and Wednesday night will range between 2 and 3 inches. For Fresno County, generally between 1 ½ and 2 inches, in eastern Tulare County, between 1 and 1 ½ inches and over the valley portion of Kern County between ½ to 1 inch.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .53, Parlier, .52, Arvin .56, Delano .57.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 52, Arvin 58, Delano 52
Average Temperatures: 62/40, Record Temperatures: 80/27
Heating Degree Days Season. 1353 -470 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .5.31, Monthly 2.51
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.25, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature this Month 51.4 +1.8 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 756 Arvin, 659 Belridge, 666 Shafter, 715 Stratford, 739 Delano 743. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:45. Sunset, 5:41 hours of daylight, 10:53
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 63 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 63 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 61 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 62 / 45 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 60 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 62 / 42 / 0.01 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON T 9.18 108 15.75 185 8.51 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 11.76 155 13.56 179 7.59 12.27
MERCED 0.09 9.10 129 13.48 191 7.07 11.80
MADERA 0.18 6.01 96 5.14 82 6.28 10.79
FRESNO 0.16 5.31 83 9.83 154 6.38 10.99
HANFORD 0.12 5.23 111 6.99 148 4.73 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.08 4.33 117 4.50 122 3.69 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 3.10 106 8.73 299 2.92 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 2.38 212 0.39 35 1.12 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.57 108 9.27 117 7.90 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.05 12.03 162 13.07 176 7.44 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.05 8.47 107 13.61 171 7.94 13.32