February 16, 2024
Summary: Radar composites over northern California indicate light showers have spread as far south as the Bay Area, however the real dynamics of this storm are still off shore and will not begin to affect the San Joaquin Valley until mid to late afternoon Saturday. This first storm will be a fairly light event for central California. The first atmospheric river of air will move into the counties north of the Bay Area where the heaviest precipitation will occur over the next 24 hours. This storm’s big brother is a horse of a different color. This system is so strong that 40 to 50 foot waves have been pounding Hawaii the past couple of days even though the storm never moved any closer than 1,500 miles to the islands. This system will be off the northern California coast by midday Sunday. We will see our most worthwhile weather between late Sunday and Monday night. the next AR will come on shore from Ventura in the south to roughly Monterey in the north, meaning central California will be in the bull’s eye. Numerous flood watches are already out for the mountains of San Luis Obispo, Ventura, and Santa Barbara Counties. Rainfall amounts in the central valley will be greatly affected by a rain shadow on the valley facing sides of the Coast Range and the Kern County mountains. We have a situation here where relatively light amounts will occur in Kern County to as much as 2 to 3 inches in Madera and Merced Counties. This will be a very, very slow moving storm which is one reason it’s so dangerous. We’re keeping rain in the forecast all the way through Wednesday evening when the low finally moves into the Great Basin. Upper level high pressure will begin a drying trend on Thursday, a pattern that will hold into the weekend and possibly into the following week.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy tonight. Rain arriving by sunset Saturday. Rain at times Saturday night. we’ll back off and go with a chance of showers Sunday. Rain becoming likely Sunday night through Tuesday night. a chance of showers Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 44/66/50/68 | Reedley 45/66/51/68 | Dinuba 43/64//49/69 |
| Porterville 43/69/51/71 | Lindsay 42/69/50/70 | Delano 46/69/51/71 |
| Bakersfield 48/70/52/71 | Taft 48/64/52/65 | Arvin 47/66/51/71 |
| Lamont 46/67/52/72 | Pixley 44/65/50/68 | Tulare 43/66/49/68 |
| Woodlake 43/65/49/69 | Hanford 45/67/51/70 | Orosi 43/65/49/68 |
Winds: I’ll go ahead and give a 50/50 chance of strong winds over the Kern County portion of the valley floor beginning later Sunday night through Monday. That is when an intense low will be off the northern California coast. This storm is positioning itself further north than the one two weeks ago which reduces the potential for strong winds. However, winds in the 35-45 mph range are certainly possible with gusts to possibly 65 in the extreme south valley. Again, this is for later Sunday night through Monday. Along the west side of the valley, winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible. Elsewhere, from Sunday night through Monday evening, winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Until then, expect winds of no more than 7 mph, mainly out of the southeast, through Saturday.
Rain: I don’t look for measurable rain on the valley floor any earlier than mid to late afternoon Saturday, and possibly even after sunset. The first storm will drop just light amounts of precipitation over the valley. However, from Sunday afternoon through Monday night, and possibly part of Tuesday, waves of rain will move onshore from time to time. Rainfall amounts in the central valley will be greatly affected by a rain shadow on the valley facing sides of the Coast Range and the Kern County mountains. We have a situation here where relatively light amounts will occur in Kern County to as much as 2 to 3 inches in Madera and Merced Counties. This will be a very, very slow moving storm which is one reason it’s so dangerous. We’re keeping rain in the forecast all the way through Wednesday evening when the low finally moves into the Great Basin
Frost: Expect above freezing conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.