February 17, 2024
Summary: The leading edge of the rain shield, as of the time of this writing, was moving into western Fresno County. Generally light precipitation is occurring from Merced County north. Rain will move across the valley from west to east across the valley with the bulk of the precipitation falling this evening and through the late evening hours. There’s a nice gap out over the Pacific Ocean which extends from the back side of the current storm to storm number 2 which is blossoming over the eastern Pacific Ocean and will invade central California Sunday night through Tuesday. That’s one of the dynamics which makes this storm so interesting as it stalls over the northern and central California coasts for a good three days. It is also developing an atmospheric river of air which is sweeping into the southeast quadrant of the low, adding fuel to the fire. Models this afternoon which go out through Monday night have some interesting quantitative precipitation estimates. From this afternoon through Monday night, Bakersfield is expected to record just .30, Porterville .81, and Fresno 1.42. This illustrates the develop of a rain shadow over Kern County and portions of Tulare County. Something similar to what we experienced two weeks ago, when much of central California was undergoing flooding, the south valley experienced very light amounts of precipitation. Merced County could easily pick up 2-3 inches as the rain shadow remains to their south. Showers will last through a good deal of the day Wednesday then finally end Wednesday night. upper level high pressure will take over Thursday through next weekend for several days of dry weather which should last all the way into the following week..
Forecast: Rain overspreading the valley from west to east north of Kern County. Occasional light showers over Kern County. Rain will taper off late tonight through the first part of the day Sunday then expect rain at times Sunday night through Tuesday night. isolated thunderstorms are also possible. Showers Wednesday, tapering off by evening. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 49/68/53/67 | Reedley 50/69/54/66 | Dinuba 49/68/53/64 |
| Porterville 49/71/54/68 | Lindsay 47/70/53/68 | Delano 50/70/54/69 |
| Bakersfield 51/71/55/78 | Taft 52/67/55/65 | Arvin 51/70/54/69 |
| Lamont 51/70/54/69 | Pixley 49/70/53/66 | Tulare 49/67/53/66 |
| Woodlake 49/68/53/67 | Hanford 51/69/53/65 | Orosi 49/68/52/65 |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 mph today and tonight with stronger gusts. Winds Sunday through Monday will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times. Gusts to 30 mph are possible along the west side and along the east side from Madera County north. There is a roughly 30% chance of gusty winds in the extreme south valley Sunday afternoon through Monday with gusts possibly reaching 45 mph, mainly near the base of the Kern County mountains.
Rain: As of the time of this writing, light to occasionally moderate rain was occurring in western Fresno County. Light rain will also overspread the valley from Fresno County northward by midafternoon and into the south valley by early evening. Rain will continue for much of the night then end by the predawn hours. By later Sunday afternoon, rain will again sweep in from the west with rain at times Sunday night through Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible through the period. Showers will continue Wednesday, finally ending by Wednesday evening. Expect dry weather for several days thereafter. From this afternoon through Wednesday, as much as 2 to 3 inches are possible in Madera and Merced Counties, 1.50 to 2 inches in Fresno County, and 1.25 to 1.75 in Tulare County. Generally, .25 to .50 over the valley portion of Kern County. We will be dealing with a strong rain shadow over portions of the south valley, so estimates may be a bit heavy, but we’ll run with it for now.
Frost: Expect above freezing conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.