February 27, 2024
Summary The weak upper low which moved through overnight resulted in no more than a few one hundredths of an inch of rain with just trace amounts elsewhere. That low has merged with a trough in the northern Rockies, allowing upper level high pressure off shore to begin to take charge of the reins of the current pattern for dry weather through Thursday night. Models are still trending towards a major winter storm Friday through Saturday night. Currently, this system is gathering energy in the Gulf of Alaska. It will dive south/southeast into California late Thursday night through Saturday night. Computer generated precipitation estimates are most impressive with this system, especially with snow fall estimates. In the Sierra Nevada, the higher elevations are forecast to pick up anywhere from 4-6 feet of new snow from Thursday night through Saturday night. When the colder sector of the storm arrives, snow levels in the mountains will drop to 2,000-3,000 feet and possibly as low as 2,500 feet over the Kern County mountains. Precipitation estimates for the valley floor are summarized in the rainfall discussion below. Lift will play a huge role with this event as a 150 knot jet stream moves from south/southwest to east/northeast, perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada and the Coast Range. As the air is lifted over the mountains, it will wring out impressive amounts of rain and snow with 4-6 inches of rain in the foothills and mountains. The backside this storm will clear the Sierra Nevada by late Saturday night for a period of dry weather which will last at least 72 hours before the next, much weaker, system moves in through northern California about a week from Wednesday.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night. rain becoming likely Friday, especially during the afternoon. Rain at times Friday night through Saturday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/41/68/43/68 | Reedley 65/42/69/43/69 | Dinuba 63/40/68/42/68 |
| Porterville 64/40/69/42/69 | Lindsay 63/39/68/42/69 | Delano 65/44/69/44/70 |
| Bakersfield 64/45/70/48/70 | Taft 60/45/65/49/65 | Arvin 66/44/70/45/70 |
| Lamont 66/44/70/45/70 | Pixley 65/42/69/44/68 | Tulare 63/39/67/43/68 |
| Woodlake 64/49/68/42/68 | Hanford 65/40/69/43/67 | Orosi 65/39/68/43/69 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Rain likely 47/68 | Saturday Rain likely 48/64 | Sunday Partly cloudy 36/67 | Monday Mostly clear 33/56 | Tuesday Mostly clear 34/59 |
Two Week Forecast: March 5 through March 11: This model has flip flopped from previous model runs. It now indicates there’s about a 40% chance of above average precipitation. Temperatures during this period will range below average.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 mph today and mainly out of the northwest. Winds tonight through Thursday will be generally less than 6 mph. Winds Thursday night through Friday night will be generally out of the east/southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph possible.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Thursday night. the chance of rain will rapidly increase Friday with rain at times Friday night through Saturday night. This system will have strong rain shadows along the west side and, as usual, in Kern County. Rainfall amounts in Kern County from late Thursday night through Saturday night will range between .20 and .40. From western Fresno County southward to Kings County, expect between .25 and .55. From Merced County southward along the east side towards Tulare County, anywhere from .50 to one-inch is possible. Inch and a half totals cannot be ruled out, mainly in Merced County. Dry weather will return Sunday and will last for roughly 72 hours thereafter.
Frost: A cold air mass will overspread central California over the weekend and early next week. it appears likely temperatures in the 30s will arrive Sunday morning. for now, the threshold of this air mass would lower coldest locations down to 30 to 33 in unprotected river bottom type locations. However, isolated upper 20s cannot be ruled out, especially Monday and Tuesday mornings. It appears a weak weather system will arrive about the middle of next week for above freezing temperatures thereafter.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid 40s to near 50. Kern: Mid 40s to near 50.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .65, Parlier, .67, Arvin .65, Delano .69.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 57, Arvin NA, Delano 58
Average Temperatures: 64/42, Record Temperatures: 79/26
Heating Degree Days Season. 1447 -517 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 6.16, Monthly 3.36
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.83, Monthly: 2.22
Average Temperature this Month 53.4 +2.7 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 787 Arvin, 687 Belridge, 687 Shafter, 741 Stratford, 768 Delano 780. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:31. Sunset, 5:52 hours of daylight, 11:18
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 67 / 51 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 66 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 65 / M / T /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 64 / 54 / T /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 63 / 50 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 69 / 54 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 61 / 51 / 0.01 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 66 / 51 / 0.01 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.01 9.89 104 16.73 176 9.51 13.45
MODESTO 0.01 13.04 154 14.73 174 8.47 12.27
MERCED 0.00 10.46 131 14.62 183 7.99 11.80
MADERA 0.00 6.91 97 6.70 94 7.11 10.79
FRESNO T 6.16 86 12.88 179 7.18 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.97 112 10.18 191 5.34 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.83 116 6.58 157 4.18 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.09 124 9.63 293 3.29 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 2.38 178 0.88 66 1.34 2.20
SALINAS T 9.40 106 9.88 112 8.86 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.98 165 15.14 179 8.45 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 10.93 120 16.51 181 9.10 13.32