March 1, 2024
Summary: Central California is on the far southern limit of a massive low pressure system still centered in the Gulf of Alaska. Numerous secondary pieces of energy are rotating southeastward behind a cold front which is draped across central California. The most active portion of this storm is just off the northern California coast and will rotate from west/southwest to east/northeast across central California later tonight through Saturday night. The low will move inland Saturday night with precipitation coming to an end by midday Sunday. This storm has already racked up some impressive figures. Winds have gusted to 145 mph on the Sierra Nevada summit near Tahoe. Blizzard warnings continue for the entire Sierra Nevada north of Kern County. As much as 8 to 10 feet of new snow is possible above 7,000 feet with 2 to 4 feet of new snow between 4,000 and 7,000 ft. medium range models continue to show the next storm arriving late Tuesday through Wednesday with possibly another system close to next weekend. Models beginning around the 13th of March show a ridge of high pressure building over the west and off shore for above average temperatures and dry conditions.
Forecast: Rain at times through Saturday night. There is also a chance of isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers Sunday morning. becoming partly to mostly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. mostly clear Monday afternoon and night. increasing cloudiness by late Tuesday leading to a chance of showers Tuesday night through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/58/41/58 | Reedley 50/59/43/57 | Dinuba 47/57/42/57 |
| Porterville 50/60/43/58 | Lindsay 49/59/43/58 | Delano 50/60/44/58 |
| Bakersfield 51/61/45/58 | Taft 52/57/47/55 | Arvin 49/61/44/57 |
| Lamont 50/61/45/57 | Pixley 49/58/42/58 | Tulare 48/57/43/57 |
| Woodlake 48/58/42/57 | Hanford 49/59/43/58 | Orosi 48/57/42/57 |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph, gusting as high as 30 mph through Saturday night. winds late Saturday night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts at times. Winds Sunday night will decrease to around 8 to 12 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Monday night and Tuesday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Rainfall amounts have been light. A sampling of rainfall amounts as of noon today is as follows: Madera and Clovis .07, Del Rey .03, Merced .51, so far just trace amounts in the south valley. The best dynamics of this storm are surging east/southeast towards central California and its effects will be felt by later tonight through Saturday night. a rain shadow has already developed along the west side of the valley and will develop tonight over Kern County. Even so, I do anticipate significant amounts of rain along the east side of the valley, mainly north of a Pixley/Porterville line. Anywhere from one-half to one inch is possible with locally more, especially if thunderstorms develop. Along the west side, generally between .25 and .50 is possible. In Kern County, between .20 and .40 is possible. This is between tonight and Sunday morning. the rain will taper off Sunday morning, leading to dry weather Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. The chance of mainly light showers will again increase Tuesday night through Wednesday night as another weaker system from the Gulf of Alaska moves in.
Frost: Models are still showing temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings in the mid to upper 30s. the very coldest locations could dip down to 30 to 32 for short durations, but no subfreezing temperatures on a widespread basis are expected. This would be mainly for river bottom and similar locations and only if skies clear. There is nothing on medium or long range models suggesting a pattern conducive for below freezing temperatures. Above freezing temperatures can be expected for the next week to ten days.