September 12, 2023

September 12, 2023

Summary  A weak westerly flow in the upper atmosphere has moved all of the tropical moisture from Jova to our southeast. Currently, there are no tropical systems in the eastern Pacific. Our weather will be governed by weak features through the weekend. Through Wednesday, a very weak trough of low pressure will move through. As a result, the marine layer has deepened to nearly 2,000 feet. This is deep enough for a shallow intrusion to move down the valley. Currently, winds at Travis AFB in the delta are out of the southwest at 17 mph. from Merced County north, temperatures should fall to near 90 this afternoon with low to mid 90s in the central and south valley. Models are now showing a weak ridge over western north America this weekend for somewhat warmer temperatures. For now, it doesn’t appear to be pronounced enough for triple digits, but mid to upper 90s are likely for this weekend. A more significant trough of low pressure is trying to develop along the west coast about the middle of next week. if this does occur, the trough would extend from central Canada southwestward to central California, resulting in readings falling into the 80s by the latter part of next week. it’s too early in the season for precipitation, but it could result in our first semi autumn weather.   

Forecast Mostly clear skies through Friday night. Mostly clear Saturday through Tuesday.  

Temperatures:

Madera 91/59/92/58/92Reedley 93/59/92//59/93Dinuba 92/58/92/58/93
Porterville 93/60/92/59/93Lindsay 92/58/92/57/93Delano 94/60/93/61/92
Bakersfield 94/67/92/66/93Taft 91/68/91/67/90Arvin 94/63/92/62/93
Lamont 94/62/93/62/94Pixley 93/60/92/59/92Tulare 91/57/92/58/92
Woodlake 92/58/92/57/92Hanford 93/58/92/59/93Orosi 91/58/92/59/93

Seven Day Forecast

Friday Mostly clear 63/96Saturday Mostly clear 64/98Sunday Mostly clear 63/97Monday Mostly clear 61/91Tuesday Mostly clear 58/90

Two Week Outlook:  September 18  through September 24: This model shows a trough of low pressure along the west coast. While precipitation is unlikely, it cannot completely be ruled out.

August:  This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity. 

August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.

Wind Discussion:  Winds will be at or less than 15 mph through Friday. during the afternoons and evenings and generally at or less than 10 mph during the nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions.

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.51, Parlier, 1.34, Arvin 1.50, Delano 1.38.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 77, Arvin 81, Delano 77 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 92/61  Record Temperatures: 105/48

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  1846 +211 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  18.02, Monthly  .00

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 11.34, Monthly:  .00

Average Temperature this Month 78.5 +1.4 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier 1306,  Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277,  Delano 1273,  Porterville  1245  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:39, Sunset, 7:10.  hours of daylight, 12:32

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H       

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  95 /  60 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  95 /  58 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  95 /  67 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  95 /  61 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  96 /  58 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  89 /  68 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  92 /  61 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  91 /  63 /  0.00 /

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                      0.00   23.21   173    9.81    73    13.38    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   20.20   165    9.00    74    12.22    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   20.93   178    7.44    63    11.76    11.80

MADERA                        0.00   11.71   109    2.21    21    10.76    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00   18.02   165    6.34    58    10.95    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00   15.06   186    6.36    79     8.10     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00   11.34   179    5.41    86     6.32     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00   16.61   350    6.36   134     4.75     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    3.64   177    2.04    99     2.06     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00   13.95   111    7.31    58    12.54    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   20.91   173    8.77    72    12.10    12.15

SANTA MARIA                      T   24.08   181    7.85    59    13.27    13.32

Next report: September 13                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.