September 14, 2023 report

September 14, 2023

Summary  Pressure patterns remain flat over much of the western US. The latest balloon sounding at Monterey indicates the depth of the marine layer is at about 1,600 feet. Surface pressures remain a tad higher inland than they are along the coast, meaning only the immediate coast will receive the benefit of the marine layer. A weak zone of  upper level high pressure remains over the west. Temperatures will generally range in the mid 90s through Saturday. A weak low center will approach the central coast Saturday night, deepening the marine layer enough for it to begin to affect the northern portion of the valley and hopefully the remainder of the region by Monday when temperatures may drop into the mid 80s. By Tuesday, a trough of low pressure will be digging southward through western Canada. Models this morning, however, are backing off on how far south this trough will make it. It still appears we will enjoy a cooling trend next week, however how much cooling is in question. Readings will fall into the 80s. For now we’ll go with mid to upper 80s Tuesday through Thursday with another warming trend next weekend as upper level high pressure from the eastern Pacific begins to push inland.

Forecast Mostly clear skies through Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Thursday.  

Temperatures:

Madera 94/61/95/61/94Reedley 95/62/95/62/94Dinuba 93/60/94/61/94
Porterville 95/62/95/62/94Lindsay 94/59/94/60/94Delano 95/63/95/63/94
Bakersfield 95/70/95/71/95Taft 92/70/92/71/91Arvin 95/66/95/66/94
Lamont 96/64/95//64/95Pixley 95/65/95/64/94Tulare 93/61/93/60/92
Woodlake 93/61/93/60/93Hanford 95/62/95/63/94Orosi 93/60/93/60/92

Seven Day Forecast

Sunday Mostly clear 63/92Monday Mostly clear 59/87Tuesday Mostly clear 57/87Wednesday Mostly clear 57/86Thursday Mostly clear 58/86

Two Week Outlook:  September 21 through September 27: This model is showing a broad area  of low pressure over and along the coast, resulting in below average temperatures. The chance for precipitation will remain extremely low.  

August:  This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity. 

August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.

Wind Discussion:  Winds will be at or less than 15 mph through Sunday during the afternoons and evenings and generally at or less than 10 mph during the nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday night will increase out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. stronger gusts are possible along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds Sunday will continue out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with somewhat lighter winds.

Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.52, Parlier, 1.33, Arvin 1.50, Delano 1.37.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 78, Arvin 81, Delano 77 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 92/61  Record Temperatures: 106/47

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  1872 +215 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  18.02, Monthly  .T

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 11.34, Monthly:  .00

Average Temperature this Month 78.4 +1.4 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier 1306,  Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277,  Delano 1273,  Porterville  1245  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:41, Sunset, 7:07.  hours of daylight, 12:28

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H       

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  93 /  58 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  94 /  56 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  94 /  66 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  96 /  59 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  96 /  57 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  94 /  66 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  94 /  57 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  93 /  59 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  91 /  61 / 0.00 /

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                      0.00   23.21   173    9.81    73    13.38    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   20.20   165    9.00    74    12.22    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   20.93   178    7.44    63    11.76    11.80

MADERA                        0.00   11.71   109    2.21    21    10.77    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00   18.02   165    6.34    58    10.95    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00   15.06   186    6.36    79     8.10     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00   11.34   179    5.41    85     6.33     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00   16.61   349    6.73   141     4.76     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    3.64   175    2.04    98     2.08     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00   13.95   111    7.31    58    12.54    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   20.91   173    8.77    72    12.10    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   24.08   181    7.85    59    13.27    13.32

Next report: September 15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.