September 15, 2023
Summary A bubble of warm, subsiding air remains above central California. The problem is, surface pressure is roughly the same inland as it is along the coast. The marine layer has deepened to around 2,000 feet so it’s possible some cooling could occur from Merced County north. Readings in the mid 90s and up will continue from Madera County south. There is a weak upper low center several hundred miles off shore which will slowly approach the coast next weekend. This low will further deepen the marine layer, especially Sunday. A stronger trough of low pressure is moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and will move into the Pacific Northwest Saturday, breaking down the northern portion of the high. This trough will eventually connect with the off shore low with the whole mess moving through Wednesday and Thursday. As this occurs, a north to northeast flow will set up, moving in much cooler air aloft. With some luck, temperatures will lower into the low to mid 80s Wednesday through Friday. Even the ten day and two week models point to a trough of low pressure over the western US, keeping temperatures below average through the end of the month.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Monday night. Mostly clear Tuesday through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 95/63/95/61/89 | Reedley 96/63/95/62/90 | Dinuba 94/61/94/61/89 |
| Porterville 95/63/95/62/91 | Lindsay 95/62/95/61/90 | Delano 96/64/96/63/92 |
| Bakersfield 96/70/96/70/92 | Taft 92/71/91/68/89 | Arvin 97/66/96/64/91 |
| Lamont 97/66/96/64/91 | Pixley 95/63/95/62/90 | Tulare 94/62/94/61/90 |
| Woodlake 95/63/95/62/90 | Hanford 96/64/95/63/90 | Orosi 93/62/93/61/89 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Mostly clear 59/85 | Tuesday Mostly clear 57/94 | Wednesday Mostly clear 56/84 | Thursday Mostly clear 54/81 | Friday Mostly clear 52/83 |
Two Week Outlook: September 21 through September 27: This model is showing a broad area of low pressure over and along the coast, resulting in below average temperatures. The chance for precipitation will remain extremely low.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be at or less than 10 mph. winds along the west side Saturday evening will increase to 10 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. There will be periods of winds mainly out of the northwest a6 10 to 20 mph Sunday through Tuesday. Locally stronger gusts are possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.50, Parlier, 1.33, Arvin 1.51, Delano 1.37.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 77, Arvin 81, Delano 77 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 91/61 Record Temperatures: 104/45
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1886 +219 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 18.02, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 11.34, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 78.4 +1.6 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:42, Sunset, 7:05. hours of daylight, 12:26
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 95 / 59 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 96 / 59 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 65 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 97 / 61 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 97 / 59 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 95 / 70 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 95 / 59 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 95 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 93 / 64 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 173 9.81 73 13.38 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.20 165 9.00 74 12.22 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.93 178 7.44 63 11.76 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.71 109 2.21 21 10.77 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 18.02 165 6.34 58 10.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 15.06 186 6.36 79 8.10 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 11.34 179 5.41 85 6.33 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 16.61 349 6.73 141 4.76 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 3.64 175 2.04 98 2.08 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.31 58 12.54 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.91 173 8.77 72 12.10 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.08 181 7.85 59 13.27 13.32
Next report: September 16
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.