September 16, 2023
Summary A weak upper low continues to hang a few hundred miles off the central coast while weak upper level high pressure covers the interior west. In the meantime, a trough of low pressure is moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and will move through the Pacific Northwest Monday, breaking down the high over the western US. The marine layer has already deepened to 2,200 feet and it is moving through the Delta. Winds are out of the southwest at Travis AFB sustained at 22 mph. areas from Merced north will enjoy some cooling today with modified sea breeze moving all the way down the valley tonight and Sunday. The trough over the Pacific Northwest will drop southward over Nevada then will morph into a closed low. This will keep cooler air aloft over California along with a fairly robust on shore flow. Temperatures will drop to below average as early as tomorrow and will remain there through the week. how cool it ultimately becomes differs significantly on models. In any case, readings will be well down into the 80s throughout the week. both the ten day and the two week models show a broad trough remaining over the western states, maintaining below average temperatures. So, at last, summer has enjoyed its last few days and fall will arrive early this year.
Forecast Outside of occasional high and mid level clouds, it will be mostly clear through Tuesday. Mostly clear and cooler Tuesday night through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 92/59/87/57/85 | Reedley 93/61/88/57/84 | Dinuba 92/60/86/57/84 |
| Porterville 95/59/88/58/85 | Lindsay 94/60/88/58/84 | Delano 95/63/89/59/85 |
| Bakersfield 95/68/88/65/85 | Taft 90/62/84/61/80 | Arvin 96/65/90/60/86 |
| Lamont 96/66/90/60/85 | Pixley 95/62/88/58/84 | Tulare 92/59/87/56/84 |
| Woodlake 92/60/87/56/85 | Hanford 94/60/87/59/84 | Orosi 92/58/87/56/83 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Mostly clear 55/84 | Wednesday Mostly clear 54/85 | Thursday Mostly clear 54/83 | Friday Mostly clear 53/82 | Saturday Mostly clear 52/85 |
Two Week Outlook: September 21 through September 27: This model is showing a broad area of low pressure over and along the coast, resulting in below average temperatures. The chance for precipitation will remain extremely low.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or below 10 mph this morning. By late afternoon, winds will be picking up out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph along the west side and 8 to 15 mph elsewhere. Winds tonight through Tuesday will occasionally be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts interspersed with periods of lighter winds.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.49, Parlier, 1.32, Arvin 1.51, Delano 1.36.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 77, Arvin 82, Delano 77 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 91/61 Record Temperatures: 105/49
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1903 +229 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 18.02, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 11.34, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 78.6 +1.9 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:43, Sunset, 7:03. hours of daylight, 12:23
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 93 / 63 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 95 / 60 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 96 / 66 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 96 / 67 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 97 / 62 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 96 / 73 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 95 / 62 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 96 / 64 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 92 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 173 9.81 73 13.39 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.20 165 9.00 74 12.22 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.93 178 7.44 63 11.76 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.71 109 2.21 21 10.77 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 18.02 165 6.34 58 10.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 15.06 186 6.36 79 8.10 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 11.34 179 5.41 85 6.33 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 16.61 349 6.73 141 4.76 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 3.64 173 2.04 97 2.10 2.20
SALINAS T 13.95 111 7.31 58 12.54 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.91 173 8.77 72 12.10 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.08 181 7.85 59 13.28 13.32
Next report: September 18
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.