September 18, 2023
Summary There are two low centers we’re dealing with this morning. The first is a weak upper low several hundred miles west of San Francisco. The second is a stronger system in western Canada. The combination of falling pressure aloft and a stronger onshore flow has flooded the valley with modified marine air, thus temperatures dropped into the mid to upper 80s Sunday afternoon. The marine layer is well over 3,000 feet deep and will surge inland from time to time, ushering in a period of below average temperatures. By Wednesday night and Thursday, a closed low will develop over eastern Oregon with the southern sector of the low hanging down into northern California. Cooler locations Thursday and possibly Friday may not even reach the 80 degree mark as fall begins both on the calendar and in our weather. Any precipitation will be confined to a few afternoon showers each day over the summit of the Sierra Nevada with some high clouds over the valley floor from time to time. Otherwise, mostly clear skies with early fall weather will begin this week. both the ten day and the two week models are still indicating a trough of low pressure will be over and along the west coast for a continuation of below average temperatures. Longer term, any precipitation will be confined to the mountains of northern California and the summit of the Sierra Nevada, mainly from Yosemite north.
Forecast Mostly clear and mild through Thursday with occasional high clouds. Mostly clear and continued mile Thursday night through Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 83/55/85/56/86 | Reedley 85/57/86/58/87 | Dinuba 83/55/85/56/86 |
| Porterville 84/57/86/57/87 | Lindsay 83/55/86/56/86 | Delano 85/57/86/58/88 |
| Bakersfield 84/62/86/63/88 | Taft 81/62//83/63/83 | Arvin 86/59/86/60/87 |
| Lamont 86/58/87/60/88 | Pixley 84/57/86/57/87 | Tulare 83/55/85/56/86 |
| Woodlake 84/56/85/57/87 | Hanford 85/58/86/57/87 | Orosi 83/55/85/56/86 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday Mostly clear 54/79 | Friday Mostly clear 52/83 | Saturday Mostly clear 55/87 | Sunday Mostly clear 56/88 | Monday Mostly clear 56/87 |
Two Week Outlook: September 25 through September October 2: This model is showing a broad area of low pressure over and along the coast, resulting in below average temperatures. The chance for precipitation will remain extremely low.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Thursday morning will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts and periods of lighter winds. Wednesday afternoon through Thursday will see winds out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger winds possible.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.43, Parlier, 1.34, Arvin 1.48, Delano 1.33.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 77, Arvin 82, Delano 77 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 90/60 Record Temperatures: 107/48
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1928 +231 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 18.02, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 11.34, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 78.5 +2.0 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:44, Sunset, 7:00. hours of daylight, 12:18
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 84 / 60 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 60 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 86 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 88 / 63 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 85 / 65 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 86 / 74 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 86 / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 173 9.81 73 13.39 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.20 165 9.00 74 12.23 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.93 178 7.44 63 11.76 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.71 109 2.21 21 10.77 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 18.02 165 6.34 58 10.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 15.06 186 6.36 79 8.10 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 11.34 179 5.41 85 6.33 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 16.61 348 6.73 141 4.77 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 3.64 173 2.04 97 2.11 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.31 58 12.54 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.91 173 8.77 72 12.11 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 24.08 181 7.85 59 13.28 13.32
Next report: September 19
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.