September 19, 2023 report

September 19, 2023

Summary  There are still two areas of low pressure governing our weather this morning. The first is a weak upper air circulation which is moving southward parallel to the central coast and will move inland through southern California Wednesday with no active weather. The second and more significant system stretches from British Columbia to Washington state. That system will break off, forming a new low over eastern Oregon Wednesday and Wednesday night then will extend southward into northern and central California Thursday. As a pool of cool, autumn air moves overhead, temperatures will continue to head south. Some locations may not reach the 80 degree mark Thursday with lower 80s Friday. The low will move into the Great Basin Friday, leaving a broad area of low pressure over the western 1/3 of the US. In fact, predominately low pressure will cover the eastern Pacific Ocean and western US for much of next week. some models are hinting at an even stronger trough next weekend. The only precipitation through the period will be confined to the Sierra Nevada, manly over the summit from Fresno County north.

Forecast Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this morning. Mostly clear this afternoon through Wednesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Thursday night. Mostly clear Friday through Tuesday.  

Temperatures:

Madera 84/57/86/57/78Reedley 85/58/86/57/79Dinuba 83/56/86/57/77
Porterville 85/59/86/59/79Lindsay 85/57/86/57/78Delano 86/60/87/60/80
Bakersfield 85/65/86/62/80Taft 81/61/82/59/77Arvin 86//61/87/62/80
Lamont 87/62/87/62/79Pixley 85/57/86/57/79Tulare 83/56/86/57/78
Woodlake 84/58/85/57/78Hanford 85/58/86/58/79Orosi 84/57/85/57/78

Seven Day Forecast

Friday Mostly clear 55/82Saturday Mostly clear 53/85Sunday Mostly clear 54/85Monday Mostly clear 55/84Tuesday Mostly clear 55/83

Two Week Outlook:  September 25 through September October 2: This model is showing a broad area  of low pressure over and along the coast, resulting in below average temperatures. The chance for precipitation will remain extremely low.  

August:  This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity. 

August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.

Wind Discussion:  Winds through tonight will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts and periods of lighter winds. Wednesday afternoon through Friday will see winds out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger winds possible.   

Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.40, Parlier, 1.33, Arvin 1.49, Delano 1.32.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 76, Arvin 82, Delano 76 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 90/60  Record Temperatures: 104/44

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  1936 +229 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  18.02, Monthly  .T

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 11.34, Monthly:  .00

Average Temperature this Month 78.2 +1.8 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier 1306,  Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277,  Delano 1273,  Porterville  1245  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:45, Sunset, 6:59.  hours of daylight, 12:17

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H       

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  84 /  60 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  85 /  59 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  85 /  62 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  83 /  63 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  85 /  60 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  82 /  66 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  83 /  61 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  82 /  62 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  83 /  57 / 0.00 /

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                      0.00   23.21   173    9.81    73    13.39    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   20.20   165    9.00    74    12.23    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   20.93   178    7.44    63    11.76    11.80

MADERA                        0.00   11.71   109    2.21    21    10.77    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00   18.02   165    6.34    58    10.95    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00   15.06   186    6.36    79     8.10     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00   11.34   179    5.41    85     6.33     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00   16.61   348    6.73   141     4.77     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    3.64   173    2.04    97     2.11     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00   13.95   111    7.31    58    12.54    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   20.91   173    8.77    72    12.11    12.15

SANTA MARIA                      T   24.08   181    7.85    59    13.28    13.32

Next report: September 20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.