September 21, 2023 report

September 21, 2023

Summary  The center of circulation of a rather robust low pressure system is over eastern Oregon this morning. The bottom side of this low sags into northern and central California. Infrared satellite imagery indicates low clouds have stretched inland to the last mountain range separating the valley from the Coast Range. Marine air is gushing into the valley. A peak gust of 35 mph is noted at Lost Hills this past hour. Temperatures this afternoon will dip anywhere from 7 to  10 degrees below yesterday’s readings. The low will sag into northern Nevada Friday before shifting eastward over the weekend, allowing weak high pressure to fill in from the west. Even so, temperatures will remain marginally below average Saturday and Sunday. A new trough will sag southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California by Monday. this will once again increase the onshore flow, allowing marine air to move down the valley from time to time, maintaining below average temperatures through at least the middle of next week. latest models encompassing next weekend are indicating predominantly low pressure along the west coast for continued below average temperatures. The only precipitation in central California will be over the Sierra Nevada, manly from Fresno County north this afternoon and evening and again early next week.

Forecast Mostly clear skies through Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Thursday.

Temperatures:

Madera 78/54/82/53/85Reedley 80/55/83/55/86Dinuba 79/53/82/55/85
Porterville 80/54/83/55/86Lindsay 79/52/83/54/85Delano 80/55/82/56/85
Bakersfield 80/58/83/59/86Taft 78/58/80/59/82Arvin 81/56/83/57/85
Lamont 81/56/82/58/86Pixley 79/54/83/55/85Tulare 78/53/81/55/84
Woodlake 79/53/82/53/84Hanford 79/54/81/55/85Orosi 79/53/82/54/84

Seven Day Forecast

Sunday Mostly clear 54/87Monday Mostly clear 53/87Tuesday Mostly clear 52/82Wednesday Mostly clear 54/83Thursday Mostly clear 55/87

Two Week Outlook:  September 28 through September October 4  This model is showing a broad area  of low pressure over and along the coast, resulting in below average temperatures. The chance for precipitation will remain extremely low.  

August:  This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity. 

August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.

Wind Discussion:  Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph through tonight. Gusts to near 30 mph are possible, mainly along the west side and especially along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds Friday through Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph interspersed with periods of lighter winds.     

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.35, Parlier, 1.28, Arvin 1.42, Delano 1.26.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 76, Arvin 82, Delano 76 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 89/59  Record Temperatures: 102/42

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  1958 +233 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  18.02, Monthly  .T

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 11.34, Monthly:  .00

Average Temperature this Month 78.0 +1.8 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier,  Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford,  Delano,  Porterville.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise ,6:47 Sunset, 6:56.  hours of daylight, 12:12

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H       

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  86 /  60 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  90 /  58 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  89 /  65 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  90 /  63 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  91 /  59 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  87 /  69 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  88 /  61 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  87 /  63 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  79 /  61 / 0.00 /

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                      0.00   23.21   173    9.87    74    13.40    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   20.20   165    9.08    74    12.23    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   20.93   178    7.64    65    11.77    11.80

MADERA                        0.00   11.71   109    2.75    26    10.77    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00   18.02   164    6.40    58    10.96    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00   15.06   186    6.38    79     8.10     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00   11.34   179    5.41    85     6.34     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00   16.61   347    6.73   141     4.78     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    3.64   171    2.04    96     2.13     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00   13.95   111    7.38    59    12.55    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   20.91   173    9.08    75    12.11    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   24.08   181    9.63    72    13.29    13.32

Next report: September 22                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.