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Forecast

August 24, 2017

August 24, 2017

Summary: The very weak upper low we’ve been talking about the past few days is now beginning to move into southern California and will dissipate.  This gives ample opportunity for upper level high pressure to begin building eastward into California from the Pacific.  We will enjoy one more day of near average temperatures but as the high builds and eventually interconnects with another high over the Four Corners region, temperatures will rise accordingly.  Some models project temperatures will rise to near 107 in the  hottest regions Sunday through Tuesday.  Models do vary somewhat on solutions beyond Tuesday as some indicate high pressure will remain in place while others show a trough of low pressure moving into the west coast, allowing marine air to move inland.  It would also lower pressures aloft.

 

The two week model is quite interesting this morning.  It indicates the possibility of moisture, from either the monsoon or a tropical storm, moving into southern and possibly central California during that time frame.  For now, there is nothing to worry about, but as we get closer in time it will be interesting to see if some models hold onto that idea or maintain a dry forecast.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear skies through Sunday.  Mostly clear skies will continue Sunday night through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 97/64/100/66/102 Reedley 98/65/100/66/103 Dinuba 97/64/99/66/100
Porterville 98/64/101/66/103 Lindsay 98/63/100/65/102 Delano 99/67/101/68/103
Bakersfield 98/74/101/75/104 Arvin 100/68/101/69/104 Taft 98/74/100/77/102
Lamont 100/70/101/72/104 Pixley 98/63/100/66/102 Tulare 97/63/99/65/101
Woodlake 98/63/99/65/103 Hanford 98/66/101/67/103 Orosi 98/64/99/66/102

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

77/105

Monday

Mostly clear

71/105

Tuesday

Mostly clear

70/103

Wednesday

Mostly clear

70/103

Thursday

Mostly clear

78/100

 

Two Week Outlook: August 31 through September 5:  This model is rather interesting this morning.  It indicates a moist, southerly flow will be moving into southern California from a possible tropical system not even on the weather map yet.  On paper, central California is on the northern rim of activity.  It’s too far out to put rain in the forecast, but it is a model one doesn’t see often.  Temperatures will remain at least marginally above average.

 

September:  This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S.  There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season.  With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.

 

September, October, November:  It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame.  Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH through Sunday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain: Expect dry weather indefinitely.

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 20%/80%  Bakersfield, 20%/55%

Actual Humidity August 22, 2017: Delano, 83%/29%, Porterville, NA

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days August 22, 2017: Stratford 1.79, Parlier 1.41, Blackwell 1.93, Lindcove 1.51, Arvin 1.87, Orange Cove 1.79, Porterville 1.53, Delano 1.65, Madera Two 1.44. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 80, Blackwell 79, Lindcove 78, Arvin NA, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 84, Delano 83, Madera Two 81

 

Mean Temperatures for August Month So Far: 82.5. +3.8

Record Temperatures: 112/51. Average Temperatures: 96/64

Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1626, +305 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since August 22, 2017  Fresno: 17.20 season / +5.88 or +5.88, Month to Date: T

Since August 22, 2017  Bakersfield:  7.88, or 1.46,  Month to Date: T, Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:24 am  Sunset: 7:38 Hours of Daylight: 13:18

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  97 /  64 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  97 /  68 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  98 /  63 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 100 /  68 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  98 /  73 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  95 /  65 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1653 /  97 /  68 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  97 /  66 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1653 /  96 /  76 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  96 /  66 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:

To date       Last year      Average  Annual ave

STOCKTON                      0.00   21.79   158   16.69   121    13.77    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   16.93   132   15.61   122    12.84    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   16.03   131   14.66   120    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   14.18   121   12.96   110    11.76    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   17.20   152   14.29   126    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00   11.05   111    8.26    83     9.92    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.82   123    5.43    85     6.38     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    9.18   185    3.88    78     4.95     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   16.45   130   13.47   106    12.66    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   16.14   129    8.06    64    12.52    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   18.44   134    9.00    65    13.80    13.95

Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th

 

Next Report: Friday, August 25