August 30, 2017
Summary: A batch of monsoonal moisture is currently moving northward from Kings and Tulare Counties up into Merced County. Radar is indicating verga in a few locations, but I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of sprinkles somewhere out over the valley floor. Lightning was detected over the Sierra Nevada of Fresno County during the early morning hours.
Of course, the other big story is the blistering heat wave. Bakersfield hit 112 yesterday and, believe it or not, Lemoore topped out at 117 while stations north of Madera pulled back just a bit with temperatures only in the 100 to 105 degree range. Today will be a tough call for temperature forecasting as there is some marine air making it through Pacheco Pass and the Delta. It certainly is not a strong surge, but it may lower temperatures down to the 101 to 106 range today and Thursday.
Upper level high pressure Thursday night and Friday will begin to build eastward into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This will likely be phase two of this heat episode. As pressures rise, temperatures will respond with many locations over the weekend in the 105 to 110 degree range. We will also have to keep an eye on the south. A tropical low is just south of Cabo San Lucas and will likely develop into a tropical storm over the next 48 hours or so. Some models track this system right up the Gulf of California.
The flow aloft from Monday through Thursday will be generally out of the south to southeast. In other words, we will need to keep a watchful eye on this system’s behavior because a threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible next Tuesday through Saturday. Currently, I characterize this pattern as a low risk for rain, but tropical systems can be very fickle so careful observation to the south will be followed over the next week or so.
Forecast: Mostly clear but there will be occasional periods of partly cloudy skies through Wednesday of next week and continued hot. A few sprinkles are possible this morning, mainly from Tulare County northward. Look for skies to clear this morning with a sunny, hot afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 102/67/104/71/107 | Reedley 103/66/104/70/107 | Dinuba 102/68/103/71/106 | |
| Porterville 104/68/105/71/108 | Lindsay 103/67/104/69/108 | Delano 104/71/104/73/108 | |
| Bakersfield 105/79/106/81/107 | Arvin 106/69/106/74/108 | Taft 103/79/104/81/108 | |
| Lamont 105/71/105/74/108 | Pixley 104/68/105/72/107 | Tulare 103/66/104/70/107 | |
| Woodlake 104/69/105/70/106 | Hanford 104/69/105/72/108 | Orosi 103/69/104/70/107 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 74/108 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 74/109 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 74/105 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 73/103 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 72/101 |
Two Week Outlook: September 6 through September 12: This model is rather interesting this morning. It shows a moist, southerly flow moving into southern California from a possible tropical system not even on the weather map yet. On paper, central California is on the northern rim of activity. It’s too far out to put rain in the forecast, but it is a model one doesn’t see often. Temperatures will remain at least marginally above average.
September: This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S. There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season. With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.
September, October, November: It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame. Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH through Saturday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: There are a few sprinkles occurring on the valley floor from Tulare County northward. This is a batch of monsoonal moisture which is moving northward on the western side of high pressure over the interior west. The backside of this activity will move north/northeast out of the area as the morning progresses with generally clear skies later this morning and for the remainder of the day.
Of more interest is a developing tropical system just south of Cabo San Lucas. Some model projections show this system tracking right through the Gulf of California with some possibility of moisture moving as far north as central California Tuesday through Thursday. For now, I want to characterize this event as being low risk. However, that will be subject to change as the exact path of this system will become more apparent as the day goes by. I’ll keep an eye on this baby and pass along any news on it and its cloud shield.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/75% Bakersfield, 20%/50%
Actual Humidity August 28, 2017: Delano, 87%/18%, Porterville, 69%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates over the Past Seven Days August 28, 2017: Stratford 1.93, Parlier 1.54, Blackwell 1.95, Lindcove 1.65, Arvin 1.94, Orange Cove 1.84, Porterville 1.57, Delano 1.70, Madera Two 1.55. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 81, Blackwell 81, Lindcove 79, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 85, Delano 83, Madera Two 81
Mean Temperatures for August Month So Far: 82.9. +4.5
Record Temperatures: 109/52. Average Temperatures: 95/63
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1745, +450 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since August 28, 2017, Fresno: 17.20 season / +5.87 or +5.87, Month to Date: T
Since August 28, 2017, Bakersfield: 7.88, or 1.46, Month to Date: T, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:29 am Sunset: 7:29 Hours of Daylight: 13:02
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 108 / 72 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 109 / 80 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 112 / 75 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 117 / 77 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 112 / 82 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 109 / 75 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1649 / 110 / 78 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 110 / 76 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 109 / 84 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 103 / 78 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
To date Last year Average Annual ave
STOCKTON 0.00 21.79 158 16.69 121 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 132 15.61 121 12.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 131 14.66 120 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.18 121 12.96 110 11.76 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.20 152 14.29 126 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.05 111 8.26 83 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 123 5.43 85 6.38 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 185 3.88 78 4.97 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.45 130 13.47 106 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 16.14 129 8.06 64 12.55 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.44 134 9.00 65 13.81 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Thursday, August 31