September 1, 2017
Summary: Yet another area of monsoonal moisture and debris clouds from yesterday’s thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada are resulting in partly cloudy conditions in some areas. This is going to be an interesting several days up ahead as, short term, we have strong, upper level high pressure building into the Pacific Northwest and northern California, resulting in an off shore flow. As a matter of fact, the marine layer is right on the beaches this morning, so even the coastal areas will experience excessive heat. Heat warnings are in effect for virtually the full state with head advisories also in Oregon. Here in the valley, temperatures in the very hottest locations will approach the 110 degree mark especially Saturday as the high shifts into the Great Basin.
Meanwhile, we have tropical storm Lidia moving up the south central Baja, California coast. The leading edge of the storm’s cloud shield is about ¾ of the way up the peninsula. The track of this storm will take it northwestward to a position just off the southern California coast Sunday then further out to sea in a northwesterly direction. This will be a tricky forecast as the winds aloft are now out of the east/southeast which could keep the remnants of the storm just off shore. However, as the storm moves to the northwest, models do show an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms over southern California, possibly as far north as the Tehachapi Mountains.
At this point, I want to include a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast for Sunday and Monday. By Monday night or Tuesday, the remnants of Lidia will be well off the central coast, ending that source of moisture.
Finally, next week will not be nearly as hot as the relentless heat we’ve endured the past couple of weeks. A trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California will force the high pressure system further east, allowing temperatures to come down over California. With some luck, at least some locations will fall below the century mark, especially once we get to Wednesday and beyond.
Forecast: Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy through Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday through Monday with a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Friday and not as hot.
Short Term:
| Madera 106/72/109/74/104 | Reedley 107/73/108/74/105 | Dinuba 107/73/108/74/105 | |
| Porterville 108/72/109/74/105 | Lindsay 106/70/108/72/104 | Delano 108/76/109/77/106 | |
| Bakersfield 108/82/110/83/105 | Arvin 109/77/110/80/106 | Taft 106/83/108/85/104 | |
| Lamont 108/77/110/79/106 | Pixley 107/73/109/74/104 | Tulare 106/71/108/73/103 | |
| Woodlake 107/72/108/73/103 | Hanford 108/73/110/74/105 | Orosi 106/71/108/73/104 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Slight chance of showers 74/100 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 72/98 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 70/97 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 68/97 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 66/97 |
Two Week Outlook: September 8 through September 14: This model indicates another regime of above average temperatures will be at hand. Persistent upper level high pressure is the dominant feature, allowing the chance of afternoon and evening storms over the mountains during this period. For now, we’ll keep the chance of precipitation out of the forecast for the valley floor while strictly monitoring conditions.
September: This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S. There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season. With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.
September, October, November: It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame. Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH through Monday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will again break out over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains this afternoon and evening and again tomorrow afternoon and evening. Currently, I’ll keep the valley forecast dry, but the flow aloft is now out of the east/southeast which would nudge the storms out over the foothills. Sunday and Monday’s forecasts are more critical. Tropical storm Lidia will move northwest right over the Baja peninsula then out to sea along the northern Baja coast to a position off the southern California coast Sunday night and Monday. The leading edge of the cloud shield is already ¾ of the way up the Baja coast. Southern California will have a risk of showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday.
Most of the models show the deepest moisture remaining just off shore, however this will be a close call so a small chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms needs to be added to the forecast for Sunday and Monday.
After Monday, there will be a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains, but for now Tuesday through Friday appear dry for the valley floor.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/75% Bakersfield, 20%/50%
Actual Humidity August 30, 2017: Delano, 71%/16%, Porterville, 72%/19%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates over the Past Seven Days August 30, 2017: Stratford 1.97, Parlier 1.58, Blackwell 1.97, Lindcove 1.71, Arvin 2.00, Orange Cove 1.84, Porterville 1.59, Delano 1.70, Madera Two 1.60. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 82, Blackwell 83, Lindcove 80, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 86, Delano 83, Madera Two 82
Mean Temperatures for August Month So Far: 85.5. +5.1
Record Temperatures: 107/50. Average Temperatures: 95/63
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1798, +479 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since August 30, 2017, Fresno: 17.20 season / +5.87 or +5.87, Month to Date: T
Since August 30, 2017, Bakersfield: 7.88, or 1.43, Month to Date: T, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:30 am Sunset: 7:27 Hours of Daylight: 12:59
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 102 / 63 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 103 / 72 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 104 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 108 / 67 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 103 / 78 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 102 / 66 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 102 / 71 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 103 / 69 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 103 / 79 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 99 / 65 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
To date Last year Average Annual ave
STOCKTON 0.00 21.79 158 16.69 121 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 132 15.61 121 12.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 131 14.66 120 12.21 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.18 120 12.96 110 11.77 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.20 152 14.29 126 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.05 111 8.26 83 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 5.43 85 6.39 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 184 3.88 78 4.98 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.45 130 13.47 106 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 16.14 129 8.06 64 12.56 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.44 134 9.00 65 13.81 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Saturday, September 2