September 14, 2017
Summary: The center of circulation of an upper low we’ve been discussing for the past week has finally moved inland and is centered near the southern Nevada/California border. The only thing currently showing up on radar are showers over southern Nevada and parts of Utah. Today will be the coolest day in many a moon as marine air continues to spill into the valley. In fact, the usual low clouds and fog along the coast have spread inland as far as the last mountain range separating the valley from the Coast Range. Satellite imagery also indicates areas of low clouds over mainly Kern County due to the marine layer. Fog and low clouds are also stretching from the Delta well up into the Sacramento Valley.
The low will finally be absorbed by an incoming trough of low pressure now moving into the west coast. Winds aloft are out of the north/northwest, which is bringing in cooler air aloft. Low to mid 80s look like a good bet this afternoon at most locations. Once this trough moves through, weak high pressure will try to establish over the weekend. However, it will have little success in doing so as a trough lingers over the west. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will push 90 in at least the warmest locations. This is a little below average for mid September.
Models for next week are also quite interesting. They indicate a strong trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Models vary on solutions to this pattern. A couple of high resolution models show the chance of showers and thunderstorms increasing over the mountains Wednesday and Thursday, including the Kern County mountains. One model actually shows a chance of a few showers over the valley, but for now it’s the odd model out. For now we’ll go with a dry forecast but with below average temperatures for Tuesday through Friday of next week. In fact, if models are correct, temperatures will struggle to reach the 80 degree mark at mid week.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday and cooler. Mostly clear skies Monday through Tuesday night. Becoming partly cloudy Wednesday and Thursday and much cooler.
Short Term:
| Madera 83/58/86/56/87 | Reedley 85/57/86/56/87 | Dinuba 85/56/85/55/88 | |
| Porterville 86/56/85/55/88 | Lindsay 86/56/85/55/88 | Delano 87/61/85/59/88 | |
| Bakersfield 87/64/86/63/89 | Arvin 87/62/87/61/89 | Taft 86/65/87/64/88 | |
| Lamont 87/62/87/61/89 | Pixley 86/57/85/56/88 | Tulare 85/58/86/56/87 | |
| Woodlake 86/56/85/56/87 | Hanford 85/58/85/57/88 | Orosi 86/57/85/56/88 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 58/89 |
Monday
Mostly clear 59/89 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 55/81 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 53/79 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 54/77 |
Two Week Outlook: September 21 through September 27: This model shows a pretty active pattern moving into the Pacific Northwest and clipping northern California. For now, it does not appear precipitation will affect central California, but this regime should keep temperatures near to slightly below average.
September: This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S. There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season. With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.
September, October, November: It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame. Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest later today through this evening at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the west side, especially along the I5 corridor. Winds Friday through Sunday will mainly be in the 5 to 15 MPH range with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Tuesday night. Most of the models show dry weather continuing for the remainder of next week, as well. There is one high resolution model showing an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains with a slight chance over the valley floor for Wednesday night and Thursday. For now, we’ll call this an outlier and maintain a dry forecast for next week. Nevertheless, keep an eye on a strong low which will be moving inland to our north during this time frame.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 30%/80% Bakersfield, 30%/65%
Actual Humidity September 12, 2017: Delano, 94%/32%, Porterville, 87%/27%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days September 12, 2017: Stratford 1.56, Parlier 1.23, Blackwell 1.54, Lindcove 1.32, Arvin 1.53, Orange Cove 1.48, Porterville 1.22, Delano 1.37, Madera Two 1.25 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 82, Blackwell 81, Lindcove 79, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 85, Delano 81, Madera Two 83
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 88.3 +8.3
Record Temperatures: 106/48. Average Temperatures: 92/60
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2046, +589 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since September 12, 2017 Fresno: 17.20 season. or +5.94. Month to Date: T
Since September 12, 2017 Bakersfield: 7.89, or 1.43, Month to Date: .01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:41 am Sunset: 7:07 Hours of Daylight: 12:30
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 87 / 64 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 89 / 65 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 89 / 67 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 93 / 67 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 92 / 71 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 89 / 63 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 91 / 67 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 90 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 88 / 69 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 64 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
To date Last year Average Annual ave
STOCKTON T 21.79 157 16.69 121 13.84 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 131 15.61 121 12.90 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 130 14.66 119 12.30 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.26 120 12.96 109 11.85 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.30 152 14.29 126 11.37 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.16 112 8.26 83 9.98 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.83 122 5.43 85 6.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 182 3.88 77 5.04 5.18
SALINAS T 16.49 130 13.47 106 12.69 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 16.17 128 8.06 64 12.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.91 137 9.00 65 13.85 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Friday, September 15