September 15, 2017
Summary: Can you believe it? Temperatures plummeted yesterday into the mid 80s, bringing a touch of fall to the air. Many locations are down into the mid 50s this morning with a few low 50s in the low spots. All this is courtesy of a trough of low pressure which is now moving through. It will move into the interior west later today. The marine layer is roughly 3,000 feet deep and is slowing as far as its flow into the valley. Nevertheless, the valley is pooled with marine air, resulting in low to mid 80s this afternoon and temperatures in the 50s north of Kern County overnight.
Temperatures will warm several degrees over the weekend, but will remain near to slightly below average. Models for Tuesday on are quite tricky. A new trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Currently, this system appears to be dry with a possibility of showers over the Sierra and points eastward.
Once we get into Friday and Saturday of next week, models just don’t have a clue. All indicate a strong low will dig southward into California. There are big differences, though, in timing and strength of this system. It may turn out to be an inside slider, meaning the main low will dig into Nevada instead of California. This would result in showers in the mountains and much below average temperatures in the valley.
Since there is such model discrepancy, I wouldn’t completely rule out a chance of showers for Friday or Saturday, but for now I’ll keep the forecast dry and study model information as that time period gets closer.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Monday. Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday. Partly cloudy Friday.
|Madera 83/55/89/59/90||Reedley 84/54/89/60/90||Dinuba 83/54/88/59/89|
|Porterville 84/54/90/59/91||Lindsay 84/54/89/58/90||Delano 84/58/90/61/91|
|Bakersfield 85/63/89/66/91||Arvin 86/62/90/65/90||Taft 85/65/89/68/89|
|Lamont 85/63/89/66/91||Pixley 84/56/89/61/90||Tulare 83/54/88/60/89|
|Woodlake 84/55/89/60/89||Hanford 84/56/89/60/91||Orosi 84/54/88/60/90|
Seven Day Forecast:
Two Week Outlook: September 22 through September 28: This model shows a pretty active pattern moving into the Pacific Northwest and clipping northern California. For now, it does not appear precipitation will affect central California, but this regime should keep temperatures near to slightly below average.
September: This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S. There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season. With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.
September, October, November: It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame. Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts through Monday.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least the middle of next week and probably beyond. The reason I say “probably” is because there is a great deal of model discrepancy for Friday and Saturday. They all show a deep low moving into California with showers over northern California. This system may dive into Nevada instead of California, so it’s not out of the question that light showers could occur. Currently, I’m going to keep the forecast dry and study the models as we move forward in time.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 30%/85% Bakersfield, 30%/60%
Actual Humidity September 13, 2017: Delano, 90%/32%, Porterville, 74%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days September 13, 2017: Stratford 1.53, Parlier 1.22, Blackwell 1.56, Lindcove 1.31, Arvin 1.52, Orange Cove 1.48, Porterville 1.18, Delano 1.36, Madera Two 1.23 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 82, Blackwell 81, Lindcove 79, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 85, Delano 81, Madera Two 83
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 83.3 +7.9
Record Temperatures: 106/47. Average Temperatures: 92/60
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2058, +592 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since September 13, 2017, Fresno: 17.20 season. or +5.94. Month to Date: T
Since September 13, 2017, Bakersfield: 7.89, or 1.43, Month to Date: .01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:41 am Sunset: 7:06 Hours of Daylight: 12:29
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 83 / 60 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 60 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 87 / 61 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 84 / 66 / 0.50 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 84 / 62 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 84 / 60 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 84 / 63 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 84 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 80 / 63 / 0.00 /
To date Last year Average Annual ave
STOCKTON T 21.79 157 16.69 121 13.84 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 131 15.61 121 12.90 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 130 14.66 119 12.30 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.26 120 12.96 109 11.85 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.30 152 14.29 126 11.37 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.16 112 8.26 83 9.98 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.83 122 5.43 85 6.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 182 3.88 77 5.04 5.18
SALINAS T 16.49 130 13.47 106 12.69 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 16.17 128 8.06 64 12.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.91 137 9.00 65 13.85 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Saturday, September 16