September 20, 2017
Summary: Temperatures are anywhere from 2 to 8 degrees cooler this morning as compared to 24 hours ago. Most locations are in the 50s this morning with Kern County being in the upper 50s to the low 60s. We remain under a very large trough of low pressure which is centered over central Canada this morning and extends southwestward into the Pacific Northwest with a strong northwesterly flow above California.
Winds at the surface remain on shore although not as strong as yesterday. The next system will arrive Thursday. This one is stronger and will spread showers over parts of northern California and the Sierra Nevada. It’s possible light snow could occur as low as 7,000 feet Thursday night and early Friday.
Temperatures will fall to their lowest level since early June as marine air gushes inland and much cooler air moves in above the valley floor. It appears low to mid 70s are likely tomorrow and Friday. there is a slight chance of a few light showers over the valley floor later Thursday and Thursday night as the cold front moves through. The chance is very low and if it occurs at all, the chance would be the greatest along the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains.
By Saturday, the trough will have moved east of the Sierra Nevada, allowing upper level high pressure to begin to move in from the west. By late Sunday and Monday, an off shore flow will be prevalent, aiding in the warming process which likely will bring temperatures into the lower 90s by Tuesday and possibly mid 90s by Wednesday.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies today and tonight. Variable cloudiness Thursday and Friday with a slight chance of isolated showers, mainly near the foothills later Thursday and Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday and early Saturday. Becoming mostly clear later Saturday and right through Wednesday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 82/54/75/46/77 | Reedley 83/54/77/47/78 | Dinuba 82/53/76/46/78 | |
| Porterville 83/55/76/47/77 | Lindsay 83/55/75/47/77 | Delano 82/58/76/48/76 | |
| Bakersfield 82/60/76/55/76 | Arvin 82/58/76/53/77 | Taft 81/63/76/56/77 | |
| Lamont 82/58/75/51/77 | Pixley 82/55/76/49/78 | Tulare 82/54/76/46/77 | |
| Woodlake 81/54/76/46/76 | Hanford 83/55/75/47/77 | Orosi 82/54/75/47/78 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 49/79 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 53/85 |
Monday
Mostly clear 55/88 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 57/91 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 58/94 |
Two Week Outlook: September 25 through October 1: This model reverts back to a ridge pattern with high pressure being dominant over the western United States. This would dry temperatures to above and possibly well above average during this time frame with little chance of precipitation.
September: This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S. There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season. With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.
September, October, November: It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame. Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.
Winds: Winds will generally be in the 5 to 15 MPH range today with locally stronger gusts. Winds late tonight through Thursday night will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH at times with possible gusts to 35 MPH, especially along the west side. Winds Friday will remain out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds Friday night and Saturday will decrease to around 5 to 15 MPH.
Rain: There is a slight chance of a few light showers later Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front moves through the area. Showers of rain or snow will spread down the Sierra Nevada. It’s possible a few light showers could move mainly over the eastern and southern sections of the valley. However, I feel the vast majority of locations will remain dry.
Any rain will be over by early Friday morning with dry weather Friday afternoon and on through what appears to all of next week and quite possibly through the end of September.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid 40s to the lower 50s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 30%/80% Bakersfield, 25%/65%
Actual Humidity September 18, 2017: Delano, 77%/21%, Porterville, 85%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 50%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 40%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days September 18, 2017: Stratford 1.46, Parlier 1.25, Blackwell 1.61, Lindcove 1.26, Arvin 1.52, Orange Cove 1.43, Porterville 1.07, Delano 1.33, Madera Two 1.25 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 81, Blackwell 78, Lindcove 78, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 82, Delano 78, Madera Two 80
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 80.1+5.2
Record Temperatures: 105/44. Average Temperatures: 90/59
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2095, +586 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since September 18, 2017 Fresno: 17.30 season. or +5.90. Month to Date: .10
Since September 18, 2017 Bakersfield: 7.89, or +1.90, Month to Date: ..51, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:45 am Sunset: 6:58 Hours of Daylight: 12:16
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 81 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 79 / 59 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 81 / 58 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 83 / 58 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 79 / 61 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 58 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1646 / 78 / 57 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 81 / 56 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1635 / 76 / 62 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 79 / 59 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
To date Last year Average Annual ave
STOCKTON 0.00 21.79 157 16.69 120 13.91 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 131 15.61 120 12.96 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 130 14.66 119 12.37 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.26 120 12.96 109 11.90 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.30 152 14.29 125 11.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.16 111 8.26 82 10.02 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 8.33 130 5.43 84 6.43 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 181 3.88 76 5.08 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.49 130 13.47 106 12.73 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 16.17 128 8.06 64 12.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.91 136 9.00 65 13.88 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Wednesday, September 20 PM