September 27, 2017
Summary: At the surface, an upper low has developed over extreme western Arizona and has the winds at the surface off shore. This will create an east to northeast flow over central California. In the meantime, upper level high pressure has nosed into the Pacific Northwest and is also creating a northeast flow aloft. This pattern will continue the slow warming trend that has taken place over the past couple of days with temperatures pushing into the lower 90s at most locations and the low to mid 90s Thursday and Friday.
The air aloft has warmed a great deal over the past two days and has driven the freezing level up to 15, 500 feet. The marine layer has been crushed and is only 300 feet deep at Monterey.
A cooling trend will begin this weekend as a weak and dry cold front moves through. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will generally fall back into the low to mid 80s.
The pattern beginning Wednesday of next week will be quite interesting. Models show a strong trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest, driving a stronger cold front through central California. Most models show precipitation remaining north of our area, but one model is adamant about a chance of showers for Wednesday and Thursday. At the very least, it appears temperatures will dip to below average along with breezy conditions and a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada.
We’re almost into October, so these kinds of weather patterns begin to dig further south than they do earlier in the season. So, with that in mind, this pattern will have to be watched closely for the eventual placement of the low to determine whether or not there will be a chance of showers for the valley floor.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Mostly clear and cooler Saturday night through Tuesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 91/55/92/56/92 | Reedley 92/54/93/55/92 | Dinuba 91/54/92/55/92 | |
| Porterville 93/55/93/56/92 | Lindsay 92/54/92/55/91 | Delano 93/57/93/57/92 | |
| Bakersfield 93/64/93/65/93 | Arvin 93/60/92/61/92 | Taft 92/64/92/64/92 | |
| Lamont 93/59/93/60/93 | Pixley 92/56/93/56/92 | Tulare 91/54/92/55/91 | |
| Woodlake 91/54/92/55/91 | Hanford 92/54/93/55/92 | Orosi 91/53/93/54/92 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 54/87 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 53/84 |
Monday
Mostly clear 54/87 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 58/89 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 56/83 |
Two Week Outlook: October 4 through October 10: This model indicates a trough of low pressure will be dominant during this time frame, lowering temperatures to below average. This trough may be strong enough to spread showers over northern California with even a small chance over central California. It would see temperatures will be below average with breezy conditions at times.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry conditions through at least Tuesday of next week. Models for Wednesday and Thursday indicate a strong trough of low pressure will dig southward over the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Some models show a chance of showers over northern California with central California largely remaining dry. However, a strong cold front will move through with showers spreading down the Sierra Nevada with even a small chance over the valley floor, especially from Fresno County north. The placement of the trough and its associated cold front will largely determine our chance of rain. For now, we’ll just go with partly cloudy skies Wednesday and variable cloudiness Thursday while maintaining a dry forecast. However, this is certainly not written in stone. We’ll keep close tabs on the situation to see if the forecast requires amendment.
Afternoon Dew Points Today:. Visalia, Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield, Upper 30s to the mid 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 15%/85% Bakersfield, 15%/55%
Actual Humidity September 25, 2017: Delano, 91%/19%, Porterville, 92%/16%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days September 25, 2017: Stratford 1.34, Parlier 1.11, Blackwell 1.24, Lindcove 1.10, Arvin 1.17, Orange Cove 1.25, Porterville 1.06, Delano 1.15., Madera Two 1.07 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 70, Blackwell 74, Lindcove 73, Arvin 78, Orange Cove 72, Porterville 76, Delano 72, Madera Two 75
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 75.9 +1.9
Record Temperatures: 107/43. Average Temperatures: 88/57
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2105, +545 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since September 25, 2017, Fresno: 17.36 season. or +5.91. Month to Date: .16
Since September 25, 2017, Bakersfield: 8.34, or +1.89, Month to Date: ..51
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:51 am Sunset: 6:48 Hours of Daylight: 12:01
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 87 / 56 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 59 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 92 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 91 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 88 / 51 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 88 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 90 / 54 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 88 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 88 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 21.79 156 16.69 119 13.97 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 130 15.61 120 13.02 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.05 129 14.66 118 12.43 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.26 119 12.96 108 11.96 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.36 152 14.29 125 11.44 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.21 112 8.26 82 10.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 8.34 129 5.43 84 6.45 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 179 3.88 76 5.12 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.49 129 13.47 105 12.77 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 16.17 127 8.06 63 12.70 12.78
Next Report: Thursday, September 28