October 5, 2017
Summary: The low pressure system over the Great Basin is now elongated from northern Nevada to eastern Montana. This has created a northwest flow along the western flank of the system and this continues to pump in cool air aloft. Temperatures in ag areas this morning are again well down into the 40s. Temperatures will marginally warm today but will warm more so Friday and Saturday as upper level high pressure slowly builds in from the eastern Pacific.
At the surface, the lower level winds will become off shore, creating the usual Santa Ana wind conditions in southern California and enhancing the warming trend for the valley. By Saturday, highs will sneak into the lower 90s, which is several degrees above average for early October. That will be short lived, though, as a low center will again develop over the interior west Sunday night and Monday, once again creating a rather robust on shore flow. Temperatures will lower into the mid 80s possibly as early as Monday with readings falling into the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. A minor warming trend will begin about mid week as the low moves eastward, however temperatures will likely warm to no more than the mid 80s for the remainder of the week. That’s pretty close to average for this time of year.
Medium range models don’t hold out much hope of precipitation for at least the next ten days as a blocking ridge will remain just off shore.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear skies will continue Sunday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 81/44/86/48/90 | Reedley 80/45/85/48/89 | Dinuba 79/44/85/49/89 | |
| Porterville 81/44/86/48/90 | Lindsay 81/43/86/48/90 | Delano 82/48/86/51/91 | |
| Bakersfield 80/55/87/60/91 | Arvin 83/49/87/55/92 | Taft 81/56/87/62/90 | |
| Lamont 83/49/86/51/92 | Pixley 81/44/86/50/90 | Tulare 80/44/85/48/89 | |
| Woodlake 81/44/85/48/90 | Hanford 81/43/86/48/90 | Orosi 81/44/85/48/89 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 56/88 |
Monday
Mostly clear 52/80 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 46/82 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 47/83 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 48/84 |
Two Week Outlook: October 12 through October 18: This model is indicating a low pressure system will be over the interior west with a possible off shore flow over interior California. This pattern always results in dry weather with at least marginally above average temperatures.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Sunday and variable in nature.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today:. Visalia, Mid to upper 30s. Bakersfield, Low to mid 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/80% Bakersfield, 15%/55%
Actual Humidity October 3, 2017: Delano, 94%/19%, Porterville, 88%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 3, 2017: Stratford 1.46, Parlier 1.12, Blackwell 1.42, Lindcove 1.18, Arvin 1.39, Orange Cove 1.34, Porterville 1.12, Delano 1.15., Madera Two 1.13 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 70, Blackwell 74, Lindcove 70, Arvin 77, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 74, Delano 70, Madera Two 73
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.2 -5.5
Record Temperatures: 102/42. Average Temperatures: 85/55
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2145, +543 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 3, 2017 Fresno: .00 season. or -.03. Month to Date: .00
Since October 3, 2017, Bakersfield: .00, or -.01, Month to Date: .00,
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:58 am Sunset: 6:36 Hours of Daylight: 11:40
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 78 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 80 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 79 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 78 / 46 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 77 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 79 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 76 / 53 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 79 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
24 hours Season % Last year % Average Ave for year
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.08 160 0.05 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.05 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.04 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.05 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 13.95
Next Report: Friday, October 6