October 6, 2017
Summary: The trough of low pressure which has been lingering over the Great Basin for several days is finally moving eastward into the Rocky Mountain region. This is allowing upper level high pressure to slowly build in from the west. At the surface, high pressure will develop over the Great Basin, creating an off shore flow which is already getting underway. This has effectively crushed the marine layer which now has a depth of only 400 feet at Monterey. The combination of downslope heating and slowly building upper level high pressure will keep the warming trend going through Saturday. Saturday appears to be the warmest in this series as some locations may top the 90 degree mark. Humidity values are very low, taking the edge off what is considered hot weather this time of year.
By late Sunday and Monday, a new area of low pressure will develop over the Great Basin, turning the winds at the surface from off shore to on shore. Even though the low will not move into California, the counterclockwise circulation around this feature will move somewhat cooler air in aloft. Highs Sunday should back off into the mid to upper 80s then low to mid 80s Monday and Tuesday.
Looking ahead to late next week, a stronger low will move into the Pacific Northwest and eventually northern California. This will drive temperatures to below average values by next weekend and will even bring the possibility of showers over the Sierra Nevada. For now, no precipitation is expected on the valley floor but more autumn type weather can be expected.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday. Mostly clear skies will continue Monday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 86/47/89/50/85 | Reedley 87/48/90/50/86 | Dinuba 86/47/89/49/85 | |
| Porterville 87/47/90/49/86 | Lindsay 88/47/90/51/86 | Delano 88/50/91/58/87 | |
| Bakersfield 88/60/91/60/87 | Arvin 88/55/91/54/87 | Taft 88/62/91/60/88 | |
| Lamont 88/55/91/55/87 | Pixley 87/48/90/50/85 | Tulare 86/47/88/50/85 | |
| Woodlake 87/47/89/49/86 | Hanford 88/48/90/51/85 | Orosi 87/47/89/50/86 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 50/84 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 48/83 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 51/85 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 52/85 |
Friday
Mostly clear 49/80 |
Two Week Outlook: October 13 through October 19: This model is indicating a low pressure system will be over the interior west with a possible off shore flow over interior California. This pattern always results in dry weather with at least marginally above average temperatures.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Saturday night. Winds will be out of the northwest Sunday at 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly along the west side, continuing Monday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, Mid to upper 30s. Bakersfield, Low to mid 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 15%/75% Bakersfield, 15%/40%
Actual Humidity October 4, 2017: Delano, 93%/22%, Porterville, 86%/19%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 4, 2017: Stratford 1.42, Parlier 1.10, Blackwell 1.37, Lindcove 1.15, Arvin 1.35, Orange Cove 1.31, Porterville 1.10, Delano 1.15., Madera Two 1.11 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 70, Blackwell 74, Lindcove 70, Arvin 76, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 74, Delano 69, Madera Two 73
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 62.5 -6.0
Record Temperatures: 101/40. Average Temperatures: 85/55
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2145, +539 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 4, 2017 Fresno: .00 season. or -.04. Month to Date: .00
Since October 4, 2017, Bakersfield: .00, or -.02, Month to Date: .00, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:59 am Sunset: 6:34 Hours of Daylight: 11:38
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 83 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 80 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 82 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 81 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 81 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 80 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 82 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 79 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 82 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
24 hours Season % Last year % Average Ave for year
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.07 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.06 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.06 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.06 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, October 7