October 13, 2017
Summary: The coldest temperature as of 6:00am was 34 degrees north of Madera while Maricopa and Fowler chilled to 36. At least, that’s the coldest I could find. Most other ag locations were in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. we should see a repeat performance tonight because of continuing very low dew points and a generally cool air mass. Changes are in the wind, however, as upper level high pressure begins to build in from the eastern Pacific while a low dives rapidly southward into the Great Basin this afternoon and tonight. As that low moves eastward, a surface high will jump up over the Great Basin. This will set up a strong off shore flow and Santa Ana wind configurations beginning Saturday and lasting through Sunday.
The configuration setting up is similar to the one we experienced earlier in the week when strong Santa Ana winds moved into the south valley. It’s quite possible we will receive another jolt of warm and very dry air moving into Kern County. Wind gusts of more than 50 MPH are possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains with winds of up to 35 MPH as far north as Bakersfield. This, combined with building high pressure aloft will set up a warming trend for the weekend. The downsloping winds in Kern County may drive temperatures up to more than 90 there. Monday appears to be the warmest day in this series as the upper high reaches its pinnacle.
A trough of low pressure will dig southward late Tuesday and Wednesday while a secondary low develops off the central coast. More often than not, these systems do not bring precipitation. However, it will be a tricky forecast as some models indicate this system will tap into subtropical moisture and will move that moisture northward. For now, we’ll go with a dry forecast for late Wednesday and Thursday with continued dry weather through next weekend. Temperatures by Wednesday will again be below average with additional cooling due next weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday with variable cloudiness Thursday. Clearing Thursday night and becoming mostly clear Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 76/38/78/42/82 | Reedley 77/39/78/43/81 | Dinuba 75/38/77/42/80 | |
| Porterville 77/40/79/42/82 | Lindsay 77/38/79/42/83 | Delano 77/44/78/45/85 | |
| Bakersfield 75/46/81/57/91 | Arvin 77/45/83/55/92 | Taft 76/48/81/57/90 | |
| Lamont 77/45/81/56/91 | Pixley 76/41/78/44/84 | Tulare 75/39/77/43/81 | |
| Woodlake 76/39/78/42/82 | Hanford 76/39/77/43/83 | Orosi 75/39/78/44/82 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 51/88 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 52/86 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 51/81 |
Thursday
Variable clouds 48/78 |
Friday
Mostly clear 44/73 |
Two Week Outlook: October 19 through October 25: The storm track will mostly remain in the Pacific Northwest as a zonal, or westerly, flow continues. Most of California will be south of the active weather pattern, so dry conditions will continue. With a flat zone of high pressure above us, temperatures will warm to at least marginally above average.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH today but with local gusts to near 20 MPH possible along the west side. Winds over the weekend will generally be in the 5 to 10 MPH range north of Kern County and will increase out of the southeast in Kern County at 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH possible. Wind gusts below the Kern County canyons may surpass 50 MPH. these winds will subside by Sunday night with generally light winds throughout the region Monday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Wednesday and probably well beyond. However, it may be a bit tricky coming up on Wednesday night and Thursday as an upper low develops off the central coast. It’s possible this feature could pick up subtropical moisture and move it northward, but so far most modeling information shows this system remaining too far off shore for precipitation to develop. Still, we will have to keep a very close eye on this feature. For now, though, we’ll go with a dry forecast.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, Low to mid 30s. Bakersfield, Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/85% Bakersfield, 15%/50%
Actual Humidity October 11, 2017: Delano, 80%/25%, Porterville, 84%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 11, 2017: Stratford 1.30, Parlier .99, Blackwell 1.25, Lindcove 1.05, Arvin 1.41, Orange Cove 1.17, Porterville .99, Delano 1.02., Madera Two 1.01 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 69, Blackwell 72, Lindcove 68, Arvin 74, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 72, Delano 66, Madera Two 72
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.9 -3.5
Record Temperatures: 95/39. Average Temperatures: 82/52
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2149, +521 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 11, 2017 Fresno: .00 season. or -.13. Month to Date: .00
Since October 11, 2017, Bakersfield: .00, or -.06, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:05 am Sunset: 6:25 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:23
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 73 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 71 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 72 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 56 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 72 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 72 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1657 / 70 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 73 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.08 42 0.19 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.18 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.14 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.14 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.15 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.09 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.06 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.11 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.16 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.16 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.13 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, October 14