October 16, 2017
Summary: Upper level high pressure has taken complete control of our weather pattern. The high is centered over northern Mexico and bulges northward into northern California. A zonal flow will persist through Tuesday night which will result in tropical cloud cover from time to time, but even so it will remain mostly sunny.
A weak area of low pressure will move through Wednesday for generally partly cloudy skies and somewhat cooler conditions as the flow becomes on shore at the surface.
The pattern will become more interesting Thursday through Friday. we’ve been mentioning that a rather robust trough of low pressure will move through at that time with a fairly strong cold front moving through Friday. models have backed off on the amount of subtropical moisture that will become entrained in this system. The main rain line has moved further north on models so it appears the chance of rain will increase from Fresno County northward, especially Friday, with a lesser chance of rain south of that line.
Lift over the Sierra Nevada could result in fairly substantial rain along the Sierra Nevada, especially from Fresno County north. The low which previous models showed becoming entrained in this whole mess is now expected to remain well off shore, also reducing the chance of rain. At the very least, it will be much cooler and breezy Thursday through Saturday then temperatures will begin to recover Sunday and rise to somewhat above average levels through the middle of next week.
Forecast: Occasional cloudiness through Tuesday night, otherwise it will be mostly clear. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness by late Thursday with a small chance of showers, mainly from Fresno northward, late Thursday night. A chance of rain Friday, mainly from Fresno County northward with a chance of showers Friday night. Partly cloudy Saturday. Becoming mostly clear Sunday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 87/48/87/49/84 | Reedley 88/49/87/49/86 | Dinuba 87/47/87/48/85 | |
| Porterville 88/47/88/48/86 | Lindsay 87/48/87/49/86 | Delano 89/51/88/50/87 | |
| Bakersfield 89/56/88/58/86 | Arvin 90/54/89/53/87 | Taft 88/56/88/55/87 | |
| Lamont 90/54/89/54/87 | Pixley 88/50/87/50/86 | Tulare 87/48/87/49/85 | |
| Woodlake 88/48/87/48/85 | Hanford 89/49/87/48/85 | Orosi 87/47/87/48/85 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Increasing clouds 51/78 |
Friday
Chance of rain 49/69 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 44/73 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 43/78 |
Monday
Mostly clear 48/83 |
Two Week Outlook: October 23 through October 29: The storm track will mostly remain in the Pacific Northwest as a zonal, or westerly, flow continues. Most of California will be south of the active weather pattern, so dry conditions will continue. With a flat zone of high pressure above us, temperatures will warm to at least marginally above average.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Wednesday night with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH along the west side.
Rain: Expect dry weather through probably Thursday. A significant trough of low pressure will move through northern and central California Thursday night and Friday. The main trigger for precipitation in the form of subtropical moisture moving northward into the trough does not show up on models this morning, therefore the chance of rain has diminished, especially south of Fresno County. The best chance of precipitation will be Friday as a strong cold front moves through. Dry weather will return over the entire region Saturday and, if models are correct, dry weather will continue through at least Friday of next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Bakersfield, Mid to upper 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/85% Bakersfield, 15%/35%
Actual Humidity October 14, 2017: Delano, 90%/24%, Porterville, 93%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 14, 2017: Stratford 1.31, Parlier .92, Blackwell 1.22, Lindcove .96, Arvin 1.32, Orange Cove 1.09, Porterville .89, Delano .94., Madera Two .93. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 68, Blackwell 71, Lindcove 68, Arvin 73, Orange Cove 67, Porterville 70, Delano 66, Madera Two 69
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 62.4 -4.4
Record Temperatures: 99/36. Average Temperatures: 80/51
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2149, +515 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 14, 2017 Fresno: .00 season. or -.18. Month to Date: .00
Since October 14, 2017, Bakersfield: .00, or -.08, Month to Date: .00, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:08 am Sunset: 6:21 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:16
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 83 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 44 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 87 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 84 / 42 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 82 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
24 hour Season % Last year % Average Yearly Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.57 219 0.26 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 21 0.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.21 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.21 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.20 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.13 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.09 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.13 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 10 0.21 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 10 0.21 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.07 39 0.18 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, October 17