October 17, 2017
Summary: Satellite imagery is quite interesting this morning. A very weak upper low has developed around 350 miles southwest of Point Conception. Even though the system is very weak, it has picked up tropical moisture from a former tropical depression and is moving the moisture from west to east towards the central California coast. The moisture is basically mid and high level with the main field based at 10,000 feet and above. This weak little system will move across central California late this afternoon and tonight. Models do indicate there’s a small chance of there being enough convection to result in possible isolated light showers and thunderstorms at any given location, especially tonight. Most locations should remain dry, however it is possible isolated regions could pick up measurable rain. At any rate, I do not consider this to be a major precipitation producer. This weak little low will pass to the east of the Sierra Nevada Wednesday for improving weather.
The pattern for Thursday through Friday is still pretty interesting. A deep trough of low pressure will dig southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California. Most of the models now show measurable rain from roughly Merced County north, but I still want to keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast from mainly Fresno County north for Friday. it’s possible some locations Friday may not reach the 70 degree mark.
Over the weekend, an upper high will be centered over northern Baja and will expand northward into all of California. This appears, on paper, to be a strong high which will drive temperatures to well above average by early next week and will keep conditions dry through next week, if models are correct.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this morning. Variable cloudiness later this afternoon through tonight with a small chance of isolated light showers or even thunderstorms. Partly cloudy Wednesday. Becoming mostly clear Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness later Thursday afternoon. Mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday with a slight chance of showers and much cooler temperatures with breezy conditions. Partly cloudy Friday night but mostly cloudy in Kern County through Saturday morning. Becoming mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Tuesday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 86/53/86/47/78 | Reedley 85/54/86/47/79 | Dinuba 84/55/85/47/79 | |
| Porterville 86/53/86/46/80 | Lindsay 85/52/86/45/80 | Delano 86/56/86/49/80 | |
| Bakersfield 87/61/87/57/80 | Arvin 87/58/87/54/81 | Taft 86/63/86/58/79 | |
| Lamont 88/60/87/56/80 | Pixley 85/53/86/48/80 | Tulare 84/54/85/45/79 | |
| Woodlake 85/54/85/47/79 | Hanford 85/53/86/48/79 | Orosi 86/53/86/46/78 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Slight chance of showers, 48/69 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 43/73 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 44/79 |
Monday
Mostly clear 50/84 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 53/86 |
Two Week Outlook: October 24 through October 30: The storm track will mostly remain in the Pacific Northwest as a zonal, or westerly, flow continues. Most of California will be south of the active weather pattern, so dry conditions will continue. With a flat zone of high pressure above us, temperatures will warm to at least marginally above average.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday. Winds later Wednesday night through Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH, especially Friday.
Rain: We now have a benign upper low a few hundred miles off the south central California coast. This system, even though very weak, has tapped into the tropics. This could produce isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly late this afternoon and tonight. The moisture is based at 10,000 feet or above, so most precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground. However, if isolated thunderstorms occur, we could see measurable rain in those locations. My feeling, though, is most locations will either remain dry or record just trace amounts. The greatest possibility of measurable rain, small as it may be, will be tonight through early Wednesday. Dry weather will prevail for most of Wednesday through Thursday.
On Thursday, a cold trough of low pressure will be digging southward into California from the Gulf of Alaska. Most modeling information shows dry weather south of Merced County, but even so, we’ll add a slight risk of light showers for Friday south of that line as a relatively strong cold front moves through.
Upper level high pressure will build into California Saturday and beyond for a dry weekend.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, Upper 30s to the mid 40s. Bakersfield, mid to upper 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/95% Bakersfield, 20%/50%
Actual Humidity October 15, 2017: Delano, 82%/24%, Porterville, 95%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 50% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 60% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 15, 2017: Stratford 1.22, Parlier .89, Blackwell 1.18, Lindcove .94, Arvin 1.29, Orange Cove 1.06, Porterville .87, Delano .92., Madera Two .89. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 67, Blackwell 70, Lindcove 67, Arvin 72, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 70, Delano 66, Madera Two 69
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 62.5 -4.1
Record Temperatures: 96/36. Average Temperatures: 80/50
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2149, +514 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 15, 2017 Fresno: .00 season. or -.20. Month to Date: .00
Since October 15, 2017, Bakersfield: .00, or -.09, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:08 am Sunset: 6:19 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:14
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 83 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 84 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 44 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 87 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 85 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 84 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 82 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24 hour Season % Last year % Average Yearly Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.02 352 0.29 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.23 88 0.26 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.18 78 0.23 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 4 0.24 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.22 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.02 20 0.10 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.14 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.16 70 0.23 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.15 65 0.23 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.21 105 0.20 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday, October 18