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Forecast

October 18, 2017

October 18, 2017

Summary: The backside of a weak upper level low is currently moving through central California.  Doppler radar is picking up light precipitation over northern Kern County and parts of Tulare County, but most of this rain will evaporate before reaching the ground.  This afternoon, clearing skies will take place as this little system boot scoots into Nevada.

 

There are changes afoot as the next major shift in the pattern over the west will begin to unfold Thursday.  A cold trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska will dig southward along the west coast Thursday night and Friday.  the first phase of this change will be cooler weather beginning tomorrow and much cooler weather Friday as the main cold front moves through.  Highs Friday in some locations may not even reach the 70 degree mark.

 

All of the models show precipitation remaining to our north, however I think it’s wise to include a small chance of light showers for Friday, especially along the cold front.  Winds will begin to pick up as early as Thursday afternoon as pressure gradients tighten up between the coast and the interior, generating what will become a strong on shore flow.  Friday will be quite breezy, especially along the west side.

 

Over the weekend, we will bounce right back into a dry and warmer pattern.  All of the models for the weekend and for all of next week for that matter indicate strong upper level high pressure will build north and east along the west and the eastern Pacific Ocean.  By Sunday, temperatures will rise to near average levels with above average temperatures from Monday on.

 

Going out two weeks, models continue to show high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California for dry weather and above average temperatures.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy for a time this morning with a slight chance of sprinkles, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills.  Mostly clear this afternoon and tonight.  Partly cloudy Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with a slight chance of showers Friday.  partly to mostly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning.  Becoming mostly clear and warmer Saturday afternoon through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 85/44/78/48/68 Reedley 85/45/80/47/69 Dinuba 84/44/79/46/68
Porterville 86/45/80/48/69 Lindsay 85/43/81/48/69 Delano 86/49/80/52/70
Bakersfield 86/55/81/55/68 Arvin 87/51/80/51/66 Taft 86/62/79/55/69
Lamont 88/51/81/50/67 Pixley 85/47/80/49/70 Tulare 84/44/80/47/68
Woodlake 85/45/79/49/69 Hanford 86/47/80/49/69 Orosi 85/47/80/48/69

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Partly cloudy

43/73

Sunday

Mostly clear

42/79

Monday

Mostly clear

48/84

Tuesday

Mostly clear

52/86

Wednesday

Mostly clear

53/86

 

Two Week Outlook: October 24 through October 30:  The storm track will mostly remain in the Pacific Northwest as a zonal, or westerly, flow continues.  Most of California will be south of the active weather pattern, so dry conditions will continue.  With a flat zone of high pressure above us, temperatures will warm to at least marginally above average.

 

October:  The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest.  The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures.  Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.

 

October, November, December:  Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California.  Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.

 

Winds:  Winds will be at or less than 10 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Thursday afternoon will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, continuing through Friday.  local gusts to 30 MPH are possible Friday, especially along the west side north of Kern County.  Winds will decrease to 5 to 15 MPH Friday night and generally less than 15 MPH Saturday.

 

Rain: We have a little benign low moving through the valley this morning.  Radar is picking up a few echoes over northern Kern County and Tulare County.  But considering the base of the overcast is quite high, in all likelihood precipitation is evaporating before reaching the ground.  Dry weather will return this afternoon and continue through Thursday night.  A strong cold front will quickly move through the valley Friday, resulting in a small chance of light showers, mainly north of Merced, however a few showers may spread further south.  Upsloping will also begin to occur along the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains.  As the northwest flow is lifted, drizzle or light showers could occur over those slopes and possibly even into the extreme south valley Friday and Friday night.  Dry weather will return Saturday and continue for the following week to possibly ten days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Visalia, Upper 30s to the mid 40s.  Bakersfield, Mid to upper 30s.

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 20%/95%  Bakersfield, 15%/55%

Actual Humidity October 16, 2017: Delano, 92%/21%, Porterville, 89%/19%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 60% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 80%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 16, 2017: Stratford 1.19, Parlier .85, Blackwell 1.14, Lindcove .92, Arvin 1.10, Orange Cove 1.04, Porterville .86, Delano .90., Madera Two .87.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 67, Blackwell 70, Lindcove 67, Arvin 72, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 69, Delano 65, Madera Two 68

 

Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 62.5 -3.9

Record Temperatures: 97/36. Average Temperatures: 79/50

Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2149, +513 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 16, 2017  Fresno: .00 season. or -.22.  Month to Date: .00

Since October 16, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .00, or -.10,  Month to Date: .00, Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:09 am  Sunset: 6:18 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:12

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  79 /  49 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  83 /  53 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  85 /  46 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /   M /  51 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  90 /  56 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  84 /  48 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1654 /  86 /  53 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  86 /  49 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1656 /  87 /  63 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  81 /  53 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                              24 hour Season   %    Last year %    Average Yearly Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    1.02   319     0.32    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.23    79     0.29    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0    0.21    81     0.26    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0    0.04    15     0.27    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.01     4     0.25    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.16    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00       T     0    0.05    45     0.11     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.15     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00       T     0    0.16    64     0.25    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.15    60     0.25    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.21    95     0.22    13.95

 

 

Next Report: Thursday, October 18