October 21, 2017
Summary: Skies have cleared over central California other than some stubborn pockets of upslope clouds over portions of Kern County and a few high clouds embedded within a strong northwesterly flow aloft. In fact, the winds up at 18,000 feet are out of the northwest at roughly 70 MPH. This will result in another cool day across central California before upper level high pressure begins to take over tonight. It will be around indefinitely.
By Sunday night and Monday, an off shore flow will develop as surface high pressure sets up shop over the Great Basin, creating another Santa Ana wind configuration. By Monday, temperatures will already be back in the mid 80s at the warmer locations with mid to upper 80s becoming the norm through at least Thursday of next week as the upper high centers over California. A weak system will dive into the northern Rockies Thursday and Friday and will weaken the high a tad. Even so, temperatures will remain 6 to 8 degrees above average for the date.
For now, there’s no indication of a break in the high pressure regime through the end of the month. Models are showing a large high covering much of the western U.S. with a deep trough of colder low pressure east of the Rockies.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Wednesday with a few high clouds at times and a warming trend beginning Sunday. Mostly clear skies Wednesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/41/75/43/82 | Reedley 69/40/75/44/83 | Dinuba 68/40/75/44/82 | |
| Porterville 69/41/76/44/83 | Lindsay 69/41/76/44/83 | Delano 69/44/76/45/82 | |
| Bakersfield 68/49/76/52/84 | Arvin 68/46/76/49/84 | Taft 70/52/76/56/84 | |
| Lamont 69/46/76/50/85 | Pixley 69/43/76/45/83 | Tulare 68/41/74/44/82 | |
| Woodlake 68/43/76/45/83 | Hanford 68/41/75/44/83 | Orosi 69/40/75/43/83 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 51/86 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 53/86 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 52/84 |
Friday
Mostly clear 54/83 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 51/82 |
Two Week Outlook: October 25 through October 31: The storm track will mostly remain in the Pacific Northwest as a zonal, or westerly, flow continues. Most of California will be south of the active weather pattern, so dry conditions will continue. With a flat zone of high pressure above us, temperatures will warm to at least marginally above average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Tuesday with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today:.Visalia, Mid to upper 30s. Bakersfield, Mid to upper 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 30%/90% Bakersfield, 30%/65%
Actual Humidity October 19, 2017: Delano, 82%/19%, Porterville, 83%/17%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 19, 2017: Stratford 1.04, Parlier .81, Blackwell 1.05, Lindcove .85, Arvin 1.03, Orange Cove .97, Porterville .80, Delano .85., Madera Two .75. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 67, Blackwell 70, Lindcove 67, Arvin 71, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 68, Delano 65, Madera Two 67
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.1 -2.8
Record Temperatures: 94/35. Average Temperatures: 78/49
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2154, +515 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 19, 2017 Fresno: .00 season. or -.29. Month to Date: .00
Since October 19, 2017, Bakersfield: .00, or -.13, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 6:14 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:03
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 67 / 52 / 0.08 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 66 / 53 / 0.09 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 68 / 54 / 0.06 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / M / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 70 / 58 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 68 / 54 / 0.09 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 67 / 52 / 0.02 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 68 / 55 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 66 / 52 / 0.03 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 50 / M /
Rainfall:
24 hour Season % Last year % Average Yearly Ave.
STOCKTON 0.12 0.12 30 1.02 255 0.40 14.06
MODESTO 0.12 0.12 33 0.23 64 0.36 13.11
MERCED 0.15 0.15 44 0.21 62 0.34 12.50
MADERA 0.08 0.08 22 0.04 11 0.36 12.02
FRESNO 0.09 0.09 28 0.01 3 0.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.06 0.06 29 T 0 0.21 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T T 0 0.05 36 0.14 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.18 5.18
SALINAS 0.13 0.13 42 0.16 52 0.31 12.83
PASO ROBLES M T 0 0.15 48 0.31 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.03 0.03 11 0.21 75 0.28 13.95
Next Report: Monday, October 23