October 27, 2017
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is centered over Oregon and northern California this morning. This has turned winds aloft to a north/northeast flow. At the surface, there is weak high pressure over the Great Basin which will generate some locally gusty winds over the Kern County mountains and will maintain well above average temperatures over the valley floor. Yesterday, a few locations in Kern County soared into the mid-nineties, which is near record territory for late October.
The pattern for all of next week is becoming complex. There are actually three different systems that will affect central California for the next seven to eight days. The first will move in from off the southern California coast Monday. There won’t be any precipitation, but winds at the surface will turn out of the west, spreading marine air inland and weakening the high. By Tuesday, this system will have moved inland. Another feature is a projected low pressure system which will stretch from Idaho to central California from Wednesday through early Thursday. The chance of precipitation from this feature is fairly low with the exception of the Sierra Nevada which may see showers spread down the range. This system will have a cooler pool of air associated with it, so temperatures will drop even lower, possibly in the low to mid 70s by Wednesday. This system will move inland Thursday, but on Friday a much stronger trough of low pressure will dig southward from western British Columbia into northern and central California. Most of the precipitation will fall over northern California, but we can’t rule out showers from this system as a much cooler air mass invades the area. By Friday, readings could be in the mid to upper 60s along with breezy conditions and, again, a chance of showers, especially from Fresno County north.
Even the ten day forecast and the two week forecast are indicating patterns where low pressure will dominate the west, so we can at least add a chance of showers to the longer range forecast along with near to below average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday with a slight chance of showers, mainly near the mountains, through Wednesday night. Partly cloudy Thursday through Thursday night. Increasing cloudiness Friday leading to a chance of afternoon showers, mainly from Fresno County north. The risk of showers will continue Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 87/51/86/49/85 | Reedley 88/49/87/49/85 | Dinuba 86/49/86/48/84 | |
| Porterville 89/52/87/50/85 | Lindsay 88/49/86/49/85 | Delano 89/54/87/52/86 | |
| Bakersfield 90/56/89/56/86 | Arvin 92/54/89/54/87 | Taft 90/65/88/63/86 | |
| Lamont 92/55/88/55/87 | Pixley 89/52/87/51/85 | Tulare 87/50/86/49/85 | |
| Woodlake 89/50/87/49/85 | Hanford 89/51/87/50/85 | Orosi 88/51/87/50/85 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 48/81 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 48/73 |
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers 50/71 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 46/74 |
Friday
Chance of showers 47/73 |
Two Week Outlook: November 3 through November 9: This model is leaning towards a possibly significant trough of low pressure over and along the west coast. This would pose a chance of rain during this time frame and cool temperatures down to at least marginally below average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Monday with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Three low pressure systems will affect us next week. The first is a dry low which will move through southern and central California Monday and Monday night. The second is an elongated low which will stretch from Idaho through to central California. For now, there’s a decent chance of showers over the mountains from the second low and we’ll just call for a very slight chance of showers for the valley with most locations probably remaining dry.
System number three will be a full blown winter type storm affecting the Pacific Northern and northern California with showers spreading southward possibly into central California. The risk of rain late Friday and Saturday will be greatest from Fresno County northward with a chance of showers lasting through Saturday.
The ten and fourteen day outlooks show low pressure along the west coast, so it’s possible we could see some showers in the longer term, although that’s a low confidence forecast at this time. The pattern, though, does appear to be switching to late fall mode with an increased chance of showers moving into the San Joaquin Valley.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, low to mid 50s. Bakersfield, Mid to upper 40s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 30%/95% Bakersfield, 25%/65%
Actual Humidity October 25, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 93%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 25, 2017: Stratford .91, Parlier .75, Blackwell .89, Lindcove .76, Arvin .84, Orange Cove .86, Porterville .68, Delano .NA., Madera Two .71. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 66, Blackwell 69, Lindcove 66, Arvin 70, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 67, Delano 64, Madera Two 66
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 62.8 -1.9
Record Temperatures: 89/35. Average Temperatures: 75/47
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2162, +521 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 25, 2017 Fresno: .09 season. or -.35. Month to Date: .09
Since October 25, 2017, Bakersfield: T, or -.20, Month to Date: .T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:18 am Sunset: 6:07 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 87 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 94 / 57 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 89 / 52 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 90 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 90 / 54 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 90 / 67 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24 hour Season % Last year % Average Yearly Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.12 20 1.09 182 0.60 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.12 24 0.23 45 0.51 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 28 0.25 46 0.54 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 14 0.06 10 0.58 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 19 0.04 9 0.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 18 T 0 0.34 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.05 24 0.21 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.24 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.13 30 0.16 37 0.43 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.08 17 0.15 33 0.46 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.03 7 0.21 49 0.43 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, October 28