October 30, 2017
Summary: An upper level low is currently moving through southern California with its center currently near San Diego. A new area of low pressure is developing over the Pacific Northwest and will drop southward into California with no precipitation. This will happen Tuesday afternoon and night. This has rapidly deepened the marine layer along the coast which now stands at 3,000 feet deep. It’s moving over the Coast Range and into the west side of the San Joaquin Valley with no problem. If all goes as planned, most locations will not reach 80 degrees this afternoon. Temperatures will further drop into the upper 60s to the lower 70s as system number two drives through Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Behind this system will be a strong westerly flow aloft as weak high pressure builds off shore and into California. The models are becoming more and more interesting for this weekend. A cold trough of low pressure will dig southward into northern California Friday and into central California Saturday and Sunday. There are variations on the timing and intensity, but overall a huge pattern change will occur. Models do show the potential for significant precipitation with perhaps more than a half inch on the valley floor north of Kern County and possibly as much as two to three inches along the Sierra Nevada. These figures will no doubt change as we move through the week, but it certainly does appear November will kick off with a wet start.
Longer range models are also favorable for Pacific storms to move down the coast and into California. So, it appears we may see another system by Wednesday of next week. Even the two week model is suggesting a greater possibility of rain during that time frame, as well.
Forecast: Partly cloudy this morning. Clearing later this afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night. Mostly clear Wednesday and Wednesday night. Partly cloudy Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night leading a chance of rain Friday and Friday night. Rain will become likely Saturday, possibly lasting through Sunday at times. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday with patchy night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 76/43/69/42/70 | Reedley 77/45/69/44/71 | Dinuba 76/43/69/43/70 | |
| Porterville 79/43/70/42/71 | Lindsay 78/44/69/43/71 | Delano 78/48/69/44/71 | |
| Bakersfield 78/51/70/51/72 | Arvin 81/48/71/49/73 | Taft 79/57/70/54/71 | |
| Lamont 80/48/71/47/73 | Pixley 79/45/68/43/71 | Tulare 77/44/69/43/70 | |
| Woodlake 78/44/70/43/71 | Hanford 77/43/69/43/71 | Orosi 78/43/69/42/70 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 46/71 |
Friday
Chance of rain 45/70 |
Saturday
Rain likely 47/67 |
Sunday
Showers likely 44/65 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 43/68 |
Two Week Outlook: November 5 through November 11: This model is leaning towards a possibly significant trough of low pressure over and along the west coast. This would pose a chance of rain during this time frame and cool temperatures down to at least marginally below average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH today then will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH Tuesday and Tuesday night with locally stronger gusts. Winds Wednesday and Thursday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Thursday then a deep trough of low pressure will sag southward into northern California Friday, spreading precipitation possibly into central California. A new low will develop just to our west Friday night and Saturday. It will surge inland with possibly significant amounts of rainfall with one-half inch plus totals not being out of the question north of Kern County from Friday through Sunday, and possibly more. There will be a break in the action by late Sunday night with dry weather Monday and Tuesday. It’s difficult to nail down this far out, but it’s possible a new trough will dig southward about Wednesday for more rain. The two week model has been consistent lately in showing favorable patterns for more storminess down the road.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, upper 40s to the lower 50s. Bakersfield, upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 40%/100% Bakersfield, 35%/80%
Actual Humidity October 28, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 92%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 28, 2017: Stratford .87, Parlier .77, Blackwell .88, Lindcove .80, Arvin .95, Orange Cove .89, Porterville .73, Delano .NA., Madera Two .86. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 67, Blackwell, .69, Lindcove, .67, Arvin, 67, Orange Cove 67, Porterville 67, Delano 64, Madera Two 66
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.5 -0.6
Record Temperatures: 88/29. Average Temperatures: 73/45
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2176, +526 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 28, 2017 Fresno: .09 season. or -.44. Month to Date: .09
Since October 28, 2017, Bakersfield: T, or -.25, Month to Date: .T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:21 am Sunset: 6:04 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:46
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 82 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 83 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 86 / 55 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 86 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 84 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.12 17 2.13 296 0.72 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.12 20 1.99 326 0.61 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 21 1.36 194 0.70 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 11 0.60 80 0.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 16 0.63 113 0.56 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 14 0.54 123 0.44 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.20 77 0.26 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.07 26 0.27 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.13 25 1.51 290 0.52 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.08 15 1.28 233 0.55 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.03 6 1.25 236 0.53 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, October 31