November 1, 2017
Summary: Weak upper level high pressure is currently just off shore and is ridging inland over California. As a result, temperatures are 2 to 3 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Looking to our north, the leading edge of a developing low over British Columbia and Washington State is as far south as Portland, Oregon. The weak high will continue to dominate our weather through Thursday with increasing cloudiness Friday as the low becomes elongated from northeast to southwest into northern California.
Meanwhile, low pressure well off shore may become entrained into the northern system, possibly dragging up subtropical moisture, especially Sunday and Monday. Models this afternoon aren’t really impressive as far as precipitation amounts on the valley floor, but do indicate upsloping along the Sierra Nevada should provide significant precipitation along those mountains. The chance of showers over the valley will begin Friday night with an increasing risk Saturday. Once we get into the Sunday/Monday time frame, a cold front will slowly move down the valley with widespread precipitation for the valley and heavy precip over the mountainous terrain. With a strong west/southwest flow barreling into California, a rainshadow will no doubt form over Kern County and along the west side with possibly more rain along the east side as upsloping over the Sierra Nevada develops.
It appears it’ll be Monday night before all is said and done. Models this afternoon are much less bullish on a new low moving into northern and central California Wednesday night and Thursday. Models do show upper level high pressure building over the eastern Pacific and moving over California for dry weather Friday and on through the following weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night. increasing clouds Friday leading to a small chance of showers Friday night and Saturday morning. Showers will become more widespread Saturday afternoon and evening then expect periods of rain late Saturday night through Monday. Mostly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 42/66/46/64 | Reedley 43/68/46/66 | Dinuba 42/66/46/64 | |
| Porterville 43/67/47/65 | Lindsay 42/68/44/66 | Delano 47/67/48/66 | |
| Bakersfield 50/67/53/68 | Arvin 48/68/49/66 | Taft 55/67/56/66 | |
| Lamont 49/67/49/65 | Pixley 44/67/46/65 | Tulare 42/66/44/64 | |
| Woodlake 43/68/45/65 | Hanford 43/67/45/66 | Orosi 42/66/46/67 | |
Winds: Expect winds to be generally less than 10 MPH through Thursday with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours. Winds Thursday night will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, continuing through Friday. Southeast winds will pick up Friday night and Saturday at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, especially from Fresno north.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Thursday night with a small chance of precipitation from Fresno north Friday afternoon and night. the chance of showers will begin to increase Saturday as a cold front moves slowly southward through northern California. The front will move slowly down the valley Sunday, giving a much greater risk of rain, possibly heavy, along the Sierra Nevada. The upper low following the front will take its time moving to the east, so the risk of rain is high Sunday night through Monday.
Amounts of rain are very unclear at this time due to modeling differences. I do feel the Sierra Nevada will do quite well with this system, but it is the type of system that creates rain shadows in Kern County and along the west side. Upsloping along the western face of the Sierra Nevada should provide the east side with a greater shot at precipitation. The chance of rain will remain high Monday as the back side of the trough moves through with dry weather beginning Monday night and possibly lasting all of next week. Models are considerably less aggressive on rain for central California for late Wednesday night and Thursday as had been earlier indicated.
Frost Information: No chance of frost for at least the next week and quite possibly longer.
Next Report: Thursday, November 2