November 2, 2017
Summary: A weak upper level low is several hundred miles off the central coast this afternoon. The counterclockwise circulation around this feature has the winds aloft out of the southwest which is pushing plenty of cloud cover over central California. Temperatures so far have been held down, especially north of Kern County, where readings are anywhere from 3 to 8 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.
In the meantime, to our north a strengthening low pressure system is moving into northwest Washington with the cloud shield moving into northern California. The southern limit of any precipitation is down to roughly Eugene, Oregon, but it will sag southward into northern California Friday.
Friday will be a difficult day to forecast around. A strong west/southwest flow will move in a great deal of clouds with the chance of a few showers, continuing Friday night. on Saturday, the low to our north will sag southward into southern Oregon and northern California. The first of two cold fronts will move in Saturday for a chance of mainly light showers. Another front will pass through Sunday. That system has a marginally better chance of spreading showers over the area.
Meanwhile, that low off the central California coast is expected to move inland through southern California early next week. How far north any precipitation from this system moves in will determine just how much ultimately falls over our region. Some of the models are also quite different on the pattern for Tuesday through Thursday. Low pressure will remain along the west coast while high pressure will remain too far off shore to prevent additional impulses to move in from the northwest for a slight chance of showers. Another trough moving southward from the Gulf of Alaska shows up on models over central California about Thursday of next week.
Some have also changed their tune for the pattern after Thursday. Instead of high pressure moving in from the west, a trough is projected to remain along the west coast with a strong northwest flow aloft. This could lead to precipitation next weekend, although that’s a bit of a shot in the dark for now.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy through Friday night. there will be a small chance of a few showers, mainly Friday afternoon and night. a chance of showers Saturday through Sunday. A chance of showers will continue Sunday night through Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday with a slight chance of showers Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 47/65/46/65 | Reedley 48/66/46/65 | Dinuba 46/65/45/64 | |
| Porterville 47/67/46/66 | Lindsay 46/67/46/65 | Delano 49/68/50/67 | |
| Bakersfield 52/68/52/67 | Arvin 50/69/50/68 | Taft 55/69/55/68 | |
| Lamont 50/68/51/67 | Pixley 48/67/47/66 | Tulare 46/65/46/64 | |
| Woodlake 48/67/47/65 | Hanford 48/66/47/65 | Orosi 46/67/46/66 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through tonight then will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH Friday. Winds Saturday will be 10 to 15 MPH out of the southeast with stronger gusts, especially from Fresno County northward.
Rain: The center of a deep low is now located over northwest Washington with precipitation spreading over western Washington down to about Eugene, Oregon. The low will continue to drop southward and spread showers over northern California Friday. there is a low risk of light showers Friday in the valley as a west/southwest flow ahead of the system begins to moisten up. The first of two cold fronts will move through Saturday with a chance of showers. Another will move through Sunday for a better chance of showers, lasting into Sunday night. an upper low off the central coast will begin tracking inland Monday through southern California. It’s quite possible showers will spread in from the southwest Monday and Tuesday, but it still looks like the bulk of the moisture will move inland through southern California from the Kern County mountains south.
Models are also somewhat different on the pattern for next Wednesday through the weekend. Another trough of low pressure might bring in additional showers Thursday. Previous models had indicated high pressure would take over for Thursday through Sunday, but it now looks like the high will remain too far off shore to prevent additional systems from moving in.
Frost Information: No chance of frost for at least the next week and quite possibly longer.
Next Report: Friday, November 3