November 3, 2017
Summary: A very weak wave of upper level low pressure is currently moving through central California. Light showers are falling over the Coast Range, but largely dissipating as they move over the west side of the valley. Doppler Radar indicates much of the precipitation is not reaching the ground, but there have been reports of sprinkles on the west side and in the Porterville area.
The main feature is a large trough of low pressure situated off the northwest Oregon coast with a trough sagging southward into northern California. A moist westerly flow will continue below the low into central California for a small chance of light showers through tonight. The chance of significant precipitation on the valley is now looking fairly low. It does not now appear that subtropical connection will not occur. A cold front will move through Saturday morning for a chance of light showers then another cold front will move through Sunday, renewing the chance of showers. The fact that a strong westerly flow will continue could result in significant precipitation along the Sierra Nevada, mainly from Kern County northward. It’s possible as much as 15 inches of snow could fall about 7,000 feet.
It now looks like Monday and Tuesday will be dry as the back side of the trough finally moves off to the east. Another fairly strong upper level low will move from north to south Tuesday and Wednesday. It will drop into northern California and possibly central California Thursday for at least a small chance of showers. Beyond Thursday, there’s variance in modeling information. There is some suggestion that yet another low could drop into the region later next weekend, but for now that’s conjecture on my part.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Sunday night. there will be a small chance of light showers through this evening with a greater risk Saturday and Saturday night and a small chance of showers Sunday through early Monday. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday with patchy morning fog. Mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness leading to a small chance of showers late Wednesday night through Thursday. Becoming partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 66/50/66/46/62 | Reedley 67/49/66/50/62 | Dinuba 65/49/66/49/61 | |
| Porterville 67/48/66/47/63 | Lindsay 67/48/66/46/63 | Delano 68/50/69/51/65 | |
| Bakersfield 68/53/69/52/65 | Arvin 68/50/69/51/66 | Taft 67/57/69/55/66 | |
| Lamont 68/50/69/51/66 | Pixley 68/49/66/46/63 | Tulare 66/48/66/44/62 | |
| Woodlake 67/49/66/47/63 | Hanford 67/49/66/47/63 | Orosi 67/49/66/45/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly cloudy 44/66 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 40/67 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 41/73 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 50/68 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 45/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 9 through November 15: There will be a chance of showers over northern California during this time frame, however models do show a flat zone of high pressure over central and southern California, so the chance of precipitation there is quite low. With the high generally in control, expect temperatures to warm to at least marginally above average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH today, becoming out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH tonight through Saturday night. winds Sunday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts with light winds Sunday night and Monday.
Rain: There are a few light showers moving into western Kings and Fresno Counties at this hour. However, most of this precipitation is not reaching the ground. We do have a weak wave of low pressure moving through so there will be a small chance of light showers for the remainder of the day and tonight. A cold front will move down the valley early Saturday, increasing the chance of mainly light showers. Another front will move through Sunday, but it currently appears weak so there will be a lower chance of light showers Sunday into early Monday. Rainfall amounts from now through early Monday could range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch from Fresno County northward and generally less than a tenth of an inch south of that line. Longer term, our next chance of rain will arrive Wednesday night and Thursday as a new low drops southward from the Pacific Northwest. Models for next weekend project an increasing chance of showers for northern California, however it’s speculative at this time whether or not any precipitation will move far enough south to affect that region.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Bakersfield, low to mid 40s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 50%/95% Bakersfield, 45%/75%
Actual Humidity November 1, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/45%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 20%, Bakersfield: Today 10% tomorrow 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 1, 2017: Stratford .73, Parlier .67, Blackwell .76, Lindcove .78, Arvin .84, Orange Cove .82, Porterville .60, Delano .NA., Madera Two .58. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 63, Blackwell .67, Lindcove, .66, Arvin, 68, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 65, Delano 64, Madera Two 65
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far:56.5 -1.5
Record Temperatures: 88/34. Average Temperatures: 71/45
Heating Degree Days This Season: 90, -23 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 1, 2017 Fresno: .09 season. or -.57. Month to Date: .09
Since November 1, 2017, Bakersfield: T, or -.32, Month to Date: .T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 5, Parlier, 5 Arvin, 0, Shafter 4, Stratford, 5, Madera two, 9, Alpaugh, 0, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 3, Porterville, 7 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:25 am Sunset: 5:59 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:37
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 70 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 71 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 71 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 71 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 69 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 70 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.12 14 2.40 276 0.87 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.12 17 2.05 285 0.72 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 17 1.45 169 0.86 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 9 0.62 67 0.93 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 14 0.67 102 0.66 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 11 0.65 118 0.55 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.24 75 0.32 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 28 0.32 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.13 21 1.69 277 0.61 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.09 14 1.39 214 0.65 12.78
Next Report: Friday, November 3/pm