November 4, 2017
Summary: A weak cold front is moving slowly down the valley this morning. As of the time of this writing, light showers were falling in Fresno County with a few isolated showers in northern Kings County. To the north and south of that line, things are precipitation free. The radar returns themselves are recording just very light precipitation with the risk of showers continuing through the remainder of the day, especially north of Kern County.
On Sunday, yet another trough will move through central California. On paper, this system is quite weak with only a chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County, with the best risk being from Fresno County north.
The next system will dive into the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin Monday and Monday night, bypassing central California. Temporarily, we will find ourselves on the eastern edge of upper level high pressure which is lurking off shore. Models continue to show a new trough of low pressure moving southward from the Pacific Northwest and into northern California Thursday into Friday morning. It appears the best chance of rain from this system will be mainly from Fresno County northward, but a chance of light showers further south cannot be ruled out.
Dry weather will return later Friday through Saturday night with the next low spreading showers into at least northern California Sunday and Monday of the following week.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Sunday night. there will be a chance of light showers today through Sunday. Partly cloudy Monday. Becoming mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday night. increasing cloudiness Thursday with a chance of showers from mainly Fresno north, lasting into Friday morning. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/49/62/39/64 | Reedley 67/51/62/40/63 | Dinuba 66/50/62/39/64 | |
| Porterville 67/51/63/41/64 | Lindsay 67/50/63/38/65 | Delano 68/52/64/43/65 | |
| Bakersfield 69/53/64/46/63 | Arvin 71/52/66/46/63 | Taft 68/55/65/53/63 | |
| Lamont 70/53/65/44/64 | Pixley 67/51/62/41/65 | Tulare 66/49/63/38/64 | |
| Woodlake 67/51/62/39/63 | Hanford 66/50/62/40/64 | Orosi 66/49/62/38/64 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 42/69 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 39/73 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 52/72 |
Friday
AM showers possible 51/67 |
Saturday
Increasing clouds 47/70 |
Two Week Outlook: November 9 through November 15: There will be a chance of showers over northern California during this time frame, however models do show a flat zone of high pressure over central and southern California, so the chance of precipitation there is quite low. With the high generally in control, expect temperatures to warm to at least marginally above average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH today through Sunday evening with locally stronger gusts, mainly Sunday. Winds later Sunday night through Tuesday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: At this hour, light showers are falling over mainly Fresno County with a few light showers in northern Kings County. Everything north of that line is shower free. Shower free conditions also exist in Tulare and Kern Counties. These showers are associated with a weak cold front moving slowly down the valley. The chance of scattered light showers will exist through tonight but accumulations will be quite light. A second front and its associated trough of low pressure will move through Sunday for another chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County, ending Sunday evening. Rainfall at most locations on the valley floor from now through Sunday night will be generally less than .10 with possibly nothing to a few hundredths of an inch down to Kern County.
Dry weather will prevail Monday through Wednesday night. It still appears a trough of low pressure will move through central California Sunday through Monday, but it’s speculative how far south any precipitation will spread. Nevertheless, a small chance of showers will exist week after next.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Bakersfield, low to mid 40s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 55%/95% Bakersfield, 45%/80%
Actual Humidity November 2, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 92%/59%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 20%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 2, 2017: Stratford .64, Parlier .57, Blackwell .69, Lindcove .58, Arvin .76, Orange Cove .67, Porterville .52, Delano .NA., Madera Two .49. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 64, Blackwell .67, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 68, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 64, Delano 64, Madera Two 65
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 55.8 -1.8
Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 71/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 100, -21 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 2, 2017 Fresno: .09 season. or -.60. Month to Date: .09
Since November 2, 2017, Bakersfield: T, or -.33, Month to Date: .T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 5, Parlier, 5 Arvin, 0, Shafter, 4, Stratford, 5, Madera two, 16, Alpaugh, 4, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 3, Porterville, 7 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:26 am Sunset: 5:58 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:35
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 70 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 71 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 71 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 71 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 69 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 70 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.12 14 2.40 276 0.87 14.06
STOCKTON 0.01 0.13 13 2.40 247 0.97 14.06
MODESTO 0.01 0.13 16 2.05 259 0.79 13.11
MERCED T 0.15 16 1.45 151 0.96 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 8 0.62 61 1.02 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 13 0.67 93 0.72 11.50
HANFORD T 0.06 9 0.65 100 0.65 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.24 69 0.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 26 0.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.08 0.21 31 1.69 249 0.68 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.10 0.19 26 1.39 193 0.72 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.03 4 1.28 180 0.71 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, November 4/pm