November 9, 2017
Summary: A cold front is currently moving into Madera and Fresno Counties and is essentially falling apart as it moves southeastward. There have been a few sprinkles but as expected movement is eastward rather than southward. Precipitation has been heavy over northern California where more than an inch has fallen over the northern Sacramento Valley. Between three and six inches of rain is expected over the Sierra Nevada from roughly Tahoe north. In the big picture, a well developed winter storm is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a strong westerly flow underneath it. The low is simply not digging far enough to the south, though, to provide a legitimate chance of precipitation in the valley.
Another secondary wave will move into northern California Friday. this system, however, will be even further north with precipitation pretty much from a Stockton/Tahoe line north. Over the weekend, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will build inland over California for a drying trend, even up north. By early next week, another system will be rolling out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Models are beginning to hint that this system will remain north of central California, as well, leaving the valley high and dry with just increasing cloudiness and marginally cooler temperatures.
A zonal or westerly flow will continue Tuesday through next week with the main storm track riding through the Pacific Northwest, perhaps clipping extreme northern California from time to time with near to marginally above average temperatures.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Friday with a slight chance of a few sprinkles in Fresno and Madera Counties today. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday night through Saturday morning. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. variable cloudiness Monday and Monday night with a slight chance of a few sprinkles as far south as Madera. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/48/68/43/66 | Reedley 71/49/70/43/67 | Dinuba 71/49/70/42/66 | |
| Porterville 72/48/70/42/66 | Lindsay 71/47/70/41/67 | Delano 73/49/70/46/68 | |
| Bakersfield 74/52/67/51/66 | Arvin 73/50/67/48/68 | Taft 71/53/67/50/66 | |
| Lamont 74/50/67/50/67 | Pixley 73/49/70/43/67 | Tulare 71/48/70/42/66 | |
| Woodlake 71/49/70/43/66 | Hanford 72/48/69/42/67 | Orosi 71/49/70/43/67 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 43/71 |
Monday
Mostly cloudy 48/68 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 42/67 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 40/66 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 39/64 |
Two Week Outlook: November 15 through November 21: There will be a chance of showers over northern California during this time frame, however models do show a flat zone of high pressure over central and southern California, so the chance of precipitation there is quite low. With the high generally in control, expect temperatures to warm to at least marginally above average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH this morning with locally stronger gusts. Winds this afternoon will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH, diminishing this evening. Later tonight through Sunday, winds will be mainly less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: A few sprinkles have reached as far south as Madera County, but I’m not anticipating anything measurable from this system which is literally dying overhead. Another wave will move into northern California Friday, this time even further north. Dry weather will continue Friday night through Sunday night then another low will arrive in northern California Monday. At this point, it appears rain will be north of a Monterey/Merced line. For now, the rest of next week appears dry under a westerly flow aloft. So, outside of a few near misses, dry weather will continue through the next week to possibly ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Bakersfield, Mid to upper 40s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 50%/95% Bakersfield, 45%/80%
Actual Humidity November 7, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 50% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 60% tomorrow 40%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 7, 2017: Stratford .56, Parlier .48, Blackwell .58, Lindcove .51, Arvin .58, Orange Cove .55, Porterville .46, Delano .NA., Madera Two .41. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 63, Blackwell 66, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 68, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 65, Delano 64, Madera Two 64
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 56.5 +0.1
Record Temperatures: 85/33. Average Temperatures: 69/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 139, -28 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 7, 2017 Fresno: .10 season. or -.76. Month to Date: .01
Since November 7, 2017, Bakersfield: .02, or -.41, Month to Date: ..02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 18, Parlier, 24, Arvin, 6, Shafter, 13, Stratford, 25, Madera two, 49, Alpaugh, 5, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 15, Porterville, 29. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:31 am Sunset: 4:54 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:30
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 74 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 76 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 79 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 76 / 41 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1509 / 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 78 / 42 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 75 / 51 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.13 12 2.40 212 1.13 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.13 14 2.05 223 0.92 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 14 1.45 133 1.09 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 7 0.62 54 1.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 12 0.67 82 0.82 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 8 0.65 83 0.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.02 5 0.24 59 0.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 23 0.39 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.21 27 1.69 214 0.79 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.20 24 1.39 170 0.82 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.04 5 1.28 156 0.82 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, November 9/pm