November 10, 2017
Summary: There is a considerable amount of cloud cover over the valley this morning. We have upslope clouds against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and further up we have subtropical cloudiness streaming in from the west/southwest based at around 12,000 feet or so. The low cloud deck will be slow to burn off and will keep temperatures down over what they were yesterday. Doppler radar is indicating light showers are falling over northern California from roughly Santa Cruz northward along the coast and Sacramento in the central valley. This is the latest impulse to move inland underneath a strong low which is now moving inland into Washington and Oregon.
Upslope clouds will continue tonight, especially in the south valley, as a strong flow is lifted by the Sierra and the Kern County mountains. The upcoming weekend looks like a good one as the low to our east moves inland and a west/southwest flow continues over California.
Satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds over the eastern Pacific Ocean which will be moving overhead from time to time. Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions will prevail through Sunday night. the next low will drop southward Monday from the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Models do show precipitation moving as far south as Fresno County with only a slight risk of a few showers further south. This appears to be a good rain event for northern California, but the dynamics will drop off rapidly south of a Bay Area/Stockton line.
The pattern for the middle of next week is becoming more interesting with time. This began to show up yesterday and continues this morning. Another low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest with the possibility of a new low moving through the northern half of the state and possibly further south Wednesday night and Thursday. If all this comes to fruition, it would be a significant weather event for northern and possibly central California. We’ll keep an eye on it and see if this trend continues.
We will be out of the office Saturday morning, November 11. Reports will resume Saturday afternoon, November 11.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon through Sunday night. increasing cloudiness again Monday with a chance of a few light shows from Fresno County north through Monday night. partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night leading to a chance of rain, especially from Fresno County north, late Wednesday night and Thursday. A chance of showers Thursday night and Friday.
We will be out of the office Saturday morning, November 11. Reports will resume Saturday afternoon, November 11.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/44/67/41/69 | Reedley 69/45/67/41/68 | Dinuba 69/43/66/40/67 | |
| Porterville 68/44/67/40/68 | Lindsay 69/43/67/39/69 | Delano 69/46/67/47/68 | |
| Bakersfield 68/50/67/50/67 | Arvin 67/47/67/48/68 | Taft 69/52/67/51/68 | |
| Lamont 68/47/67/44/68 | Pixley 69/49/67/47/69 | Tulare 68/42/67/40/67 | |
| Woodlake 69/43/67/41/68 | Hanford 70/45/67/39/69 | Orosi 69/43/67/41/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Small chance of showers 46/69 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 43/67 |
Wednesday
Increasing cloudiness 48/72 |
Thursday
Chance of rain 48/63 |
Friday
Chance of showers 44/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 16 through November 22: There will be a chance of showers over northern California during this time frame, however models do show a flat zone of high pressure over central and southern California, so the chance of precipitation there is quite low. With the high generally in control, expect temperatures to warm to at least marginally above average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Monday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: No precipitation is expected through at least Sunday night. the southern fringe of a new low will drop down into northern California Monday and could spread a few light showers down to about Fresno County. Even in Fresno and Madera Counties, the chance of measurable rain is quite low. Expect dry weather Tuesday through Wednesday then a potentially interesting pattern shows up for Tuesday through Wednesday. Models are trending towards a new low dropping southward into the Pacific Northwest and northern California similar to the pattern we’ve seen for the past week or so. There is one big difference, though. A new low is projected to develop underneath this low with a possible tropical connection. If this happens, northern California could receive heavy precip with rain possibly spreading into central California. Models for now are showing the southern limit right at Fresno County, however a lot of juggling will take place between now and then. For now, a forecast of a chance of rain from mainly Fresno County north seems a good bet with a possibility further south. That chance would last into at least Thursday night and possibly even Friday. the two week model is indicating northern California will benefit from a wet pattern with central California continuing to be teased.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield, low to mid 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 45%/100% Bakersfield, 45%/85%
Actual Humidity November 8, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 91%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 30% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 30% tomorrow 60%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 8, 2017: Stratford .57, Parlier .48, Blackwell .59, Lindcove .51, Arvin .58, Orange Cove .54, Porterville .47, Delano .NA., Madera Two .40. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 63, Blackwell 66, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 67, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 64, Delano 64, Madera Two 64
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 56.6 +0.6
Record Temperatures: 85/33. Average Temperatures: 68/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 145, -32 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 8, 2017 Fresno: .10 season. or -.79. Month to Date: .01
Since November 8, 2017, Bakersfield: .02, or -.43, Month to Date: ..02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 21, Parlier, 29, Arvin, 6, Shafter, 18, Stratford, 31, Madera two, 56, Alpaugh, 13, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 20, Porterville, 36. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:32 am Sunset: 4:53 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:23
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 73 / 58 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 72 / 54 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 75 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 75 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 74 / 51 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 72 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 74 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 71 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.02 0.17 13 2.40 186 1.29 14.06
MODESTO 0.12 0.25 24 2.05 197 1.04 13.11
MERCED 0.02 0.17 14 1.45 118 1.23 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 6 0.62 49 1.27 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 11 0.67 72 0.93 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 7 0.65 71 0.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.02 4 0.24 51 0.47 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 21 0.43 5.18
SALINAS 0.11 0.32 35 1.69 186 0.91 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 0.21 23 1.39 151 0.92 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 0.04 4 1.28 136 0.94 13.95
STOCKTON 0.00 0.12 14 2.40 276 0.87 14.06
Next Report: Friday, November 10/pm