November 13, 2017
Summary: A low pressure system is currently moving eastward into Washington State while its associated cold front has now moved into northern California. The front is by no means impressive and generally light showers are occurring along the north coast with a few light showers north of San Francisco. To our south, a great deal of mid and high level clouds are moving in from the southwest and are affecting southern California with mainly high, thin clouds from Tulare County south. They will move south out of the area as a dying cold front moves into central California late this afternoon.
The front will rapidly weaken as it moves to the south with almost no chance of precipitation in our region other than the higher regions of the Sierra Nevada from mainly Yosemite northward. A flat zone of high pressure will replace the trough tonight for dry weather into Wednesday.
There is much more agreement on models this morning on the potential for a relatively significant rain event for central California, especially from Fresno County north. A deep low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest while a mild flow of western Pacific air moves into northern and, eventually, central California. Rain could reach as far south as Fresno County by late Wednesday then spread southward with periods of rain Thursday and Thursday night.
A weak high will set up shop along the central and southern California coast beginning Friday. later in the weekend and into the middle of next week, it looks like a moist southwest flow will move into Pacific Northwest and northern California with possibly significant precipitation there. For now, medium range models show the rain line remaining north of the valley for dry conditions beginning Friday and lasting through at least the middle of next week.
Forecast: Partly cloudy this morning with patchy fog early. Increasing cloudiness later this afternoon with a slight chance of showers from Fresno County northward. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight with a chance of sprinkles from Fresno County northward. Partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday morning with patchy morning fog. Increasing cloudiness later Wednesday with a chance of showers later Wednesday afternoon with periods of rain late Wednesday night through Thursday night Mostly to partly cloudy Friday. partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Monday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/46/69/44/70 | Reedley 70/45/69/44/71 | Dinuba 69/44/69/43/69 | |
| Porterville 71/44/71/44/71 | Lindsay 70/45/70/44/71 | Delano 71/49/71/47/70 | |
| Bakersfield 70/52/70/51/72 | Arvin 69/47/70/47/72 | Taft 71/53/70/52/71 | |
| Lamont 70/48/70/47/73 | Pixley 70/45/70/44/70 | Tulare 69/44/70/44/70 | |
| Woodlake 70/43/70/44/71 | Hanford 70/44/71/45/71 | Orosi 71/44/70/44/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Periods of rain 55/66 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 42/63 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 41/71 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 44/70 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 46/71 |
Two Week Outlook: November 19 through November 25: There will be a chance of showers over northern California during this time frame, however models do show a flat zone of high pressure over central and southern California, so the chance of precipitation there is quite low. With the high generally in control, expect temperatures to warm to at least marginally above average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Tuesday night with periods of near calm conditions. Winds from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH from mainly Fresno County north. Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH Thursday night through Friday.
Rain: A cold front currently in northern California will weaken rapidly as it moves into the valley this afternoon. For now, I really don’t see any chance of precipitation from this frontal passage. From Tuesday through at least Thursday morning conditions will be dry. But models do seem to be cheering on the next system which will arrive later Wednesday through Thursday night. on paper, this system will have a moist southwest flow flanking underneath it as it moves southward, increasing the chance of rain over the entire valley, especially from Wednesday night through Thursday. A few showers could show up as early as late Wednesday afternoon. Periods of rain are projected to continue through Thursday night. dry weather will return Friday.
Rainfall amounts from Fresno northward could possibly total between a quarter and a half an inch with possibly two tenths and possibly more down in Kings and Tulare Counties with perhaps a tenth or two over the valley portion of Kern County.
Currently, it looks like dry conditions will prevail Friday afternoon through Wednesday as a moist southwest to northeast jet stream moves plenty of moisture and storminess into the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield, low to mid 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 45%/95% Bakersfield, 45%/80%
Actual Humidity November 11, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/49%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 6080% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 11, 2017: Stratford .65, Parlier .56, Blackwell .59, Lindcove .55, Arvin .56, Orange Cove .63, Porterville .49, Delano .NA., Madera Two .51. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 63, Blackwell 65, Lindcove, 64, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 63, Delano 64, Madera Two 63
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 57.2 +2.2
Record Temperatures: 80/29. Average Temperatures: 67/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 157, -53 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 11, 2017 Fresno: .10 season. or -.90. Month to Date: .01
Since November 11, 2017, Bakersfield: .02, or -.49, Month to Date: ..02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 28, Parlier, 32, Arvin, 6, Shafter, 21, Stratford, 31, Madera two, 67, Alpaugh, 18, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 20, Porterville, 46. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:35 am Sunset: 4:51 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:17
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 67 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1522 / 68 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 64 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.17 12 2.40 166 1.45 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.25 22 2.05 177 1.16 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.17 13 1.45 108 1.34 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 6 0.62 45 1.39 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 10 0.67 64 1.04 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 6 0.65 64 1.01 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.02 4 0.24 45 0.53 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 18 0.49 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.32 31 1.69 164 1.03 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.21 20 1.39 135 1.03 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.04 4 1.28 119 1.08 13.95
Next Report: Monday, November 13/pm