November 14, 2017
Summary: A weak disturbance moved inland to our north during the predawn hours with some sprinkles over Merced and Mariposa Counties, but no precipitation will occur further south. There are areas of low clouds, especially in the south valley, which will dissipate as the day wears on.
Quite an interesting weather pattern is developing for late Wednesday through Thursday night which will generate heavy amounts of precipitation over northern California. A low will drop southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday with a mid Pacific storm moving northeastward towards the northern California coast. As the northern system interacts with much milder air moving in from the west/southwest, rain will spread down to a Bay Area/Yosemite line later Wednesday but it may be Thursday before precipitation spreads down the valley due to the fact that the frontal system and the jet stream will be aligned.
As the front moves southward, precipitation will spread over the entire valley. However, with a strong westerly component, strong rain shadows will develop along the west side and in Kern County. Current model information indicates a quarter to a half inch could occur from roughly Lindsay northward along the east side of the valley with lesser amounts along the west side and especially in Kern County. With all this energy moving in perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada, heavy amounts of precip will fall north of the Kern County line, perhaps two to three inches over the foothills.
Showers will begin to wind down Thursday night as the front moves southward and rapidly weakens. Expect dry weather over the weekend under weak high pressure, although areas of fog and low clouds may develop.
A new low will drop southward into northern California Sunday night and Monday with possibly another west/southwest flow moving into the system. Current thinking is that rain will spread down to a San Luis Obispo/Fresno line with a chance of showers further south. Dry conditions are now expected from Tuesday through Thursday with patchy morning fog.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy this morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon and tonight. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday. Mostly cloudy Wednesday night with a slight chance of showers north of Fresno. Periods of rain Thursday. Diminishing showers Thursday night. mostly to partly cloudy skies Friday morning with areas of low clouds. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of rain, especially from Fresno County northward Monday and Monday night. partly cloudy Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/42/72/51/66 | Reedley 70/42/72/50/67 | Dinuba 70/43/71/52/68 | |
| Porterville 70/42/72/51/70 | Lindsay 69/41/72/50/71 | Delano 71/45/72/53/72 | |
| Bakersfield 71/47/75/55/73 | Arvin 71/45/74/54/74 | Taft 71/51/74/56/73 | |
| Lamont 72/45/74/55/73 | Pixley 70/43/72/51/68 | Tulare 69/42/72/50/69 | |
| Woodlake 70/42/72/50/67 | Hanford 71/42/72/52/68 | Orosi 71/42/71/51/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly cloudy 46/64 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 39/67 |
Sunday
Increasing clouds 44/70 |
Monday
Chance of showers 52/69 |
Tuesday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 47/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 21 through November 27: There will be a chance of showers over northern California during this time frame, however models do show a flat zone of high pressure over central and southern California, so the chance of precipitation there is quite low. With the high generally in control, expect temperatures to warm to at least marginally above average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Wednesday morning with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Wednesday afternoon and night will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, especially from Fresno County north. Winds Thursday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, especially from Fresno County north. Winds Thursday night will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, decreasing to 5 to 15 MPH Friday.
Rain: Dry weather will prevail through at least Wednesday. A mild mid-Pacific storm combined with a Gulf of Alaska system will drop a strong frontal system into northern California Wednesday with precipitation possibly reaching Fresno County late Wednesday night. the front will slow way down and move slowly southward Thursday with periods of rain and showers Thursday night. there will be a heavy rain shadow developing along the west side of the valley and in Kern County where precipitation may be reduced to less than a quarter of an inch along the west side with perhaps a tenth or two in Kern County. Along the east side north of Kern County, anywhere from a quarter to a half an inch is not out of the question with locally more. Dry weather will prevail Friday and on through Sunday. Showers may reach as far south as Fresno County sometime Sunday night with a greater risk Monday, especially from Fresno County northward and a smaller chance farther south. Once we get to Tuesday through Friday of next week, for now it looks like upper level high pressure will dominate for a period of dry weather.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Bakersfield, mid to upper 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 45%/95% Bakersfield, 45%/80%
Actual Humidity November 12, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/54%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 50% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 60% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 12, 2017: Stratford .62, Parlier .52, Blackwell .57, Lindcove .53, Arvin .57, Orange Cove .60, Porterville .46, Delano .NA., Madera Two .50. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 62, Blackwell 65, Lindcove, 64, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 63, Delano 64, Madera Two 63
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 57.8 +2.4
Record Temperatures: 83/28. Average Temperatures: 67/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 165, -57 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 12, 2017 Fresno: .10 season. or -.94. Month to Date: .01
Since November 12, 2017, Bakersfield: .02, or -.51, Month to Date: ..02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 28, Parlier, 32, Arvin, 6, Shafter, 21, Stratford, 31, Madera two, 67, Alpaugh, 18, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 20, Porterville, 46. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:36 am Sunset: 4:50 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 71 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 69 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / M / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 69 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1516 / 72 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 70 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1559 / 67 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 71 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.17 11 2.40 160 1.50 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.25 21 2.05 171 1.20 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.17 12 1.45 106 1.37 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 6 0.62 43 1.43 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 9 0.67 63 1.07 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 6 0.65 62 1.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.02 4 0.24 44 0.55 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 18 0.50 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.32 30 1.69 158 1.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.21 20 1.39 131 1.06 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.04 4 1.28 114 1.12 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, November 14/pm