November 16, 2017
Summary: Down sloping off the Kern County mountains with a southeast flow up the valley has warmed temperatures well into the 70s this afternoon with some locations in Kern County pushing 80. The air mass ahead of a frontal system and a very moist flow across north/central California this afternoon remains in place. Believe it or not, the southern limit of the precipitation shield has advanced about 50 miles from where it was this morning. It’s now on a line from Salinas to Merced with precipitation up and down the Sierra Nevada.
The low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is finally showing signs of moving eastward. This will be the catalyst to finally move the front southward tonight and Friday morning, spreading precipitation as it does. It still may be Friday morning before showers reach into Kern County.
The potential for significant precipitation remains generally on the east side of the valley from roughly Porterville northward tonight through Friday morning with lesser amounts along the west side and in Kern County as those rain shadows continue to dance around. By Friday afternoon, the front will weaken rapidly and will move into southern California, allowing precipitation to end outside of some lingering showers over the mountains.
Upslope clouds will bank up against the Sierra Nevada foothills and the Kern County mountains behind the front, so clearing will be slow, especially along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley. Those areas may not see much clearing until Saturday afternoon.
Over the weekend, weak upper level high pressure will be overhead, so where it does clear, areas of night and morning fog will certainly be possible. Higher clouds will again move in from the southwest Monday ahead of yet another system which will result in more warm rains for northern California. It’s doubtful precipitation will progress any further south than Fresno County and even in Fresno and Madera Counties, the chance of rain will be low.
From Wednesday through Friday of next week, a southwest to northeast jet stream will be evident with moisture heading into Oregon and northern California. Central California will be just south of the zone of active weather, but not by much. For now, though, we’ll keep that forecast dry.
Forecast: Rain slowly spreading southward tonight, reaching Kern County about sunrise or a little after. Periods of rain Friday morning, ending by midday. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning with areas of fog and low clouds developing. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Variable cloudiness Sunday night through Tuesday with a slight chance of showers from Fresno north Monday through Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night through Thanksgiving.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/63/39/63 | Reedley 56/64/30/64 | Dinuba 54/64/39/63 | |
| Porterville 55/64/41/64 | Lindsay 55/64/39/64 | Delano 56/65/44/65 | |
| Bakersfield 57/65/48/65 | Arvin 57/66/46/64 | Taft 58/66/49/66 | |
| Lamont 57/67/48/65 | Pixley 56/65/41/64 | Tulare 54/64/40/64 | |
| Woodlake 55/65/41/64 | Hanford 55/65/39/63 | Orosi 56/65/40/63 | |
Winds: Winds will increase out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH tonight and early Friday with gusts to 25 MPH possible, especially north of Kern County. Winds later Friday and Friday night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Friday evening. Winds Saturday and Sunday will be generally less than 10 MPH.
Rain: Radar returns today have been a case study as the precipitation from this atmospheric river of air has only progressed about 50 miles since this morning and is just now overspreading Merced County. However, low pressure over the Pacific Northwest is finally showing signs of moving inland. That will finally push the frontal system southward tonight through Friday morning, moving precip along with it. It’s quite possible Kern County may not see any rain until at least early Friday morning and considering the rain shadows going on, I wouldn’t expect much precipitation there.
Generally, east of Highway 99 and north of Kern County, as much as a quarter to a half an inch is possible with locally more, especially in Fresno and Madera Counties. A tenth to a quarter of an inch is possible north of Kern County along the west side. Only a tenth or so is likely over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will return by midday Friday and continue through the weekend. More energy will move into northern California Monday and Tuesday, but for now it appears we will remain south of any activity with only a slight chance of showers as far south as Fresno County. A southwest to northeast flow into northern California and Oregon will continue Wednesday through Friday, possibly just to our north, so even though that’s not a high confidence forecast, we’ll go with dry weather for that time frame.
Frost Information: With temperatures pressing 80 degrees in the south valley this afternoon, it’s hard to believe coldest locations Saturday and Sunday mornings could drop into the mid to upper 30s, but that’s only if skies clear. Up slope conditions will leave plenty of lower level clouds in the southern and eastern portions of the valley through Saturday and even Sunday may turn out to be partly cloudy. AT any rate, no frost threat is seen. Above average conditions are expected over the next week.
Next Report: Friday, November 17