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Forecast

November 22, 2017/pm report

Summary: There is plenty of sunshine out there this afternoon, however it is filtered by the haze in the air.  Visibility all the way from Kern County to Madera County is running 4 to 5 miles with the exception of Porterville which is all the way up to 6 miles.  High clouds are beginning to overrun the northern flank of upper level high pressure centered off the northwest Mexico coastline.  Some of these clouds have made it as far south as a Monterey/Merced line and will gradually become visible over the next couple of days as the high slowly begins to flatten out.  That is not before we have one of the warmest Thanksgivings you’ll ever see in central California.  Upper 70s will be widespread with warmest locations, mainly in Kern County, possibly eclipsing the 80 degree mark.

 

The high will slowly weaken as the weekend progresses.  A low pressure center will move into the Pacific Northwest Friday night and Saturday, driving a cold front through northern and central California late Saturday night and Sunday.  Models seem to want to move up the timing of the frontal passage with some light showers possible as far south as Fresno County as early as Sunday morning with a small chance of a few light showers in the south valley.  We will certainly exchange air masses as a northwest flow develops behind the front.  This will not only result in considerably cooler weather, but will also create upslope conditions which is typical during the fall through spring months.  That means clouds will be slow to clear especially over the eastern and southern flanks of the valley through Monday and possibly as late as Tuesday morning over Kern County and southeastern Tulare County before skies completely clear out.

 

Models show another high developing behind this system for several more days of dry weather.  for now, it looks like temperatures will warm to marginally above average later next week, but nothing unusual.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear through Friday with periods of high clouds from time to time.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday night.  increasing cloudiness late Saturday night.  cloudy Sunday with a chance of showers from Fresno north and a small chance south of Fresno.  A slight chance of showers Sunday night.  partly to mostly cloudy Monday.  Clearing Monday night.  mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 44/76/48/73 Reedley 43/77/47/74 Dinuba 43/77/45/73
Porterville 44/79/49/75 Lindsay 43/79/46/75 Delano 46/80/47/75
Bakersfield 52/80/53/76 Arvin 48/81/49/77 Taft 55/81/54/76
Lamont 49/82/50/77 Pixley 45/79/46/74 Tulare 42/78/44/74
Woodlake 44/77/45/74 Hanford 44/79/46/75 Orosi 43/78/45/74

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.

 

Rain: Expect dry weather through Saturday night.  models seem to want to move up the timing of a cold frontal passage from Sunday afternoon to Sunday morning.  The rain line from this weak system still is drawn pretty much across Fresno County with points to the north having a chance of showers and points to the south having a much lesser chance of precipitation.  At any rate, there will continue to be timing issues, but one thing is becoming apparent and that is the fact that this will not be a major weather event.  After this system moves through, a return to dry weather is expected at least through the work week next week, if not into the coming weekend.

 

Frost Information:  All locations will continue to be above freezing through at least Monday morning and more than likely beyond.  The air mass that will move in behind the weekend frontal passage is colder, but is fairly typical for late November.  This far out, it appears mid to upper 30s are certainly possible, if skies clear, in colder locations Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with low 30s in the typical cold spots.  Nothing serious is expected, though.  Longer term, there is nothing to suggest a particularly cold air mass will be moving into the region.  So with that, I’ll wish you a happy Thanksgiving.

 

Next Report: Thanksgiving morning