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Forecast

November 22, 2017/report

November 22, 2017

Summary:  There is a great deal of fog and low clouds from Fresno County northward, basically up the central and west side of the valley.  The fog is more patchy further south due to an off shore flow which is affecting southern California.  Dew points are slightly lower in Tulare County and more especially Kern County courtesy of weak downsloping off the southern Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains.  Over the northern half of the valley, some of the fog and low clouds may persist through midday while the south valley remains relatively clear but hazy.

 

Strong upper level high pressure is currently centered over Baja with a ridge extending northward into northern California.  This will result in unusually warm temperatures for this time of year with near record highs today and again Thanksgiving Day.

 

The high will flatten out late Thursday night and Friday as a weather system moves into the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  This will weaken the high enough to bring temperatures down marginally, but even so, temperatures will rise to well above average through Saturday.

 

During the second half of the weekend and early next week, the high will break down as a stronger low moves into the Pacific Northwest, driving a cold front through northern and central California. Models this morning show a fairly decent chance of showers exists for Saturday night, especially from Fresno County northward, but even a small chance of light showers could penetrate into the south valley.  Once this system moves through, upsloping will occur against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapis and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, meaning there will be a great deal of cloud cover over the southern and eastern flanks of the valley into Tuesday morning.

 

Models for Tuesday project a new high will develop, renewing the dry weather pattern for several days.

 

Forecast:  Areas of fog this morning, especially from Fresno County northward, with patchy fog elsewhere and hazy sunshine this afternoon.  Areas of fog and low clouds nights and mornings through Saturday, mainly north of Kern County, with occasional low clouds and continued hazy.  Increasing cloudiness Sunday with a chance of showers from mainly Fresno County northward.  A chance of showers Sunday night.  mostly cloudy Monday.  Becoming partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.  Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 77/42/77/45/74 Reedley 78/43/77/45/74 Dinuba 76/42/77/44/74
Porterville 79/45/77/45/76 Lindsay 79/42/78/44/75 Delano 80/47/78/46/76
Bakersfield 81/52/80/52/77 Arvin 83/49/79/48/78 Taft 80/55/79/53/76
Lamont 81/50/79/49/77 Pixley 80/47/79/47/76 Tulare 77/44/77/45/74
Woodlake 79/44/77/44/74 Hanford 78/45/77/46/75 Orosi 78/42/77/44/74

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Patchy fog/hazy sun

48/77

Sunday

Chance of showers

52/70

Monday

Mostly cloudy

43/61

Tuesday

Areas of fog/partly cloudy

35/62

Wednesday

Areas of fog/mostly clear

34/65

 

Two Week Outlook: November 20 through December 5:  This model indicates a strong ridge of upper level high pressure will be centered over the west, so obviously the chance of rain is low.  Temperatures will continue the trend of this fall, continuing to be well above average.

 

December:  This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for  central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.

 

December, January, February:  If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward.  Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states.  As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.

 

Rain: Models have moved up the timing of a cold frontal passage through central California to sometime Sunday or Sunday night.  there will be a chance of showers possibly Sunday afternoon or night, mainly from Fresno County northward, but I wouldn’t discount the chance of showers further south, especially Sunday night.  this will be a fairly fast mover so rainfall amounts are not expected to be overly impressive.  This appears to be a one storm event as upper level high pressure is expected to take over again by late Monday with dry weather for several days thereafter.  Even the two week models is indicating a strong ridge will be over the west for no chance of rain medium term.

 

Frost information:  Above freezing conditions will continue through Monday.  The air mass slilding in from the northwest is colder.  Models project possible mid to upper 30s beginning Tuesday morning with possibly some upper 20s and lower 30s in the coldest locations, but only if skies clear and dew points fall enough to allow radiational cooling.  Models also show upslope clouds developing along the Sierras and the Kern County mountains, so skies may be slow to clear.  This does not appear to be a significant cold air event, but one that will generally bring temperatures more in line with average temperatures.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Bakersfield, upper 40s to the lower 50s

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 45%/100%  Bakersfield, 35%/80%

Actual Humidity November 20, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 98%/38%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 90%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 20, 2017: Stratford .53, Parlier .43, Blackwell .54, Lindcove .39, Arvin .46, Orange Cove .47, Porterville .36, Delano .NA., Madera Two .47.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 61, Blackwell 63, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 63, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 61, Delano NA, Madera Two 62

 

Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 57.7 +3.9

Record Temperatures: 81/30. Average Temperatures: 63/39

Heating Degree Days this Season: 227, -103 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since November 20, 2017  Fresno: .31 season. or -1.01.  Month to Date: .36

Since November 20, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .03, or -.67,  Month to Date: ..03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 57, Parlier, 62, Arvin, 29, Shafter, 66, Stratford, 66, Madera two, 130, Alpaugh, 57, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 43, Porterville, 118.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:44 am  Sunset: 4:45 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:03

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  71 /  48 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  71 /  51 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  74 /  50 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  75 /  53 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  73 /  49 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  75 /  52 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  75 /  47 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1556 /  72 /  53 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  63 /  50 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.78    40    3.34   170     1.97    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.72    46    2.48   157     1.58    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.82    49    1.66    98     1.69    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.21    12    1.65    95     1.74    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.31    23    1.28    94     1.36    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.17    13    0.76    58     1.31    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.03     4    0.39    54     0.72     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16    25    0.09    14     0.65     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.40    27    1.91   129     1.48    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.23    17    2.34   177     1.32    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.05     3    2.01   135     1.49    13.95

 

Next Report: Wednesday, November 22/pm