November 28, 2017
Summary: Temperatures this afternoon are moving into the lower 60s. Dew points are in the low to mid 40s so with mostly clear skies, temperatures again tonight will dip into the 30s. Upper level high pressure is centered just off the California coast and extends inland into the interior west with a westerly flow aloft. High clouds are overrunning the high and will spread over the region tonight and Wednesday, however they will probably be too thin to slow the radiational cooling process. A dry and very weak trough of low pressure will move through central California Wednesday. It will eventually pinch off, forming a cut off low off the northern Baja coast but there will be no impact on the valley.
Models are a bit different on the pattern for the second half of the weekend and into early next week. On paper, a low will still drop into the western U.S., but some models this afternoon are showing this system dropping into the interior west just east of the Sierra Nevada. If this does occur, the chance of showers over the valley would be greatly reduced but with a much greater possibility of showers and snow showers over the Sierra Nevada.
Colder air would dive down behind this system, but the proper configuration would not be in place for problems with citrus and other frost sensitive crops. Even so, low to mid 30s would not be a surprise from Tuesday through Thursday of next week with upper 20s not out of the realm of possibilities.
Medium range models are pointing to dry weather at this time beyond Monday of next week. There are some interesting developments for the pattern beginning about the sixth of December which are detailed in the frost summary.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds tonight with areas of fog developing late tonight and Wednesday morning north of Kern County and mainly up the center of the valley. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. areas of fog late nights and mornings, otherwise it will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday night with variable cloudiness Sunday through Tuesday morning with a small chance of showers, mainly Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/63/34/65 | Reedley 35/63/36/66 | Dinuba 34/62/35/65 | |
| Porterville 35/63/35/66 | Lindsay 32/64/34/66 | Delano 37/64/38/65 | |
| Bakersfield 43/64/44/67 | Arvin 37/65/39/67 | Taft 45/65/45/66 | |
| Lamont 39/65/40/66 | Pixley 36/63/37/66 | Tulare 33/62/35/65 | |
| Woodlake 34/63/36/65 | Hanford 36/63/37/66 | Orosi 34/63/35/65 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Friday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Saturday. Models do not look as optimistic for rain as they did this morning. In fact, some models show the main area of low pressure dropping into the interior west Sunday and Monday which would result in a low possibility of rain for the valley floor with an increasing chance of rain and snow showers up and down the Sierra Nevada. The best course of action is to go with at least a small chance of showers for Sunday and Monday. Beyond Monday, models show high pressure building in behind this system along the Pacific coast for a period of dry weather which should last for several days. Even the new two week outlook is calling for just a low chance of rain for central California.
Frost Information: Dew points this afternoon are running in the low to mid 40s and with generally clear skies, temperatures again will drop into the 30s in many areas tonight. There are some high, thin clouds beginning to overrun high pressure above us, however at this time it does not appear they will be dense enough to slow the radiational cooling process.
Coldest locations should end up at about 30 with most other locations ranging between 33 and 38 with hillsides in the low 40s. look for similar conditions coming up Thursday and Friday mornings. Above freezing conditions can be expected over the weekend as a weak southerly flow and possibly increased cloud cover will keep temperatures at acceptable levels.
For now, it appears the air mass diving in behind the Sunday/Monday system will be relatively cold, but nothing too serious. I did note, however, some of the models for the sixth through ninth of December. A broad expanse of high pressure will jut well northward with a northerly flow into the interior western U.S. and possibly California. The fact that the high extends well northward into Canada means the potential for the coldest air mass of the season will be there during this time frame. Keep in mind, however, that this is the first model run this configuration has shown its face, so just keep abreast of the latest forecasts as they come out.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
AF |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
AF |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
Next Report: Wednesday morning, November 29