November 30, 2017
Summary: In the short term, central California remains between essentially two jet streams. The first is moving into Oregon while the southern branch is moving southwest to northeast into northern Baja and southern California. This leaves central California relatively cloud free, although some high clouds may begin to show up over the northern portion of the region late tonight and Friday.
A cold low pressure system will drop southward into the Pacific Northwest and northern California late Friday through Saturday. Some modeling information shows the rain line moving as far south as a San Francisco/Sacramento line on Saturday with showers along the Sierra Nevada down to near Yosemite. Clouds will begin to increase over the valley Saturday night with mostly cloudy conditions Sunday. The cold front itself will drop southward through the valley Saturday night followed by a colder air mass.
By Monday, the surface flow will be off shore while the winds aloft will drop from north to south into California. This combination is favorable for drier air to filter down into the valley, setting the stage for widespread frost beginning Tuesday morning. More is discussed in the frost section below.
Models continue the trend of a massive high building into the western states beginning Monday night and Tuesday and amplifying far to the north at midweek and beyond. This will send polar air surging southward into the middle of the country and will result in a prolonged period of dry weather for California with above average daytime temps once we get beyond midweek. With dry air theoretically trapped on the valley, a strong of frost nights is likely beginning Tuesday and lasting for much of next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight with areas of fog and low clouds developing up the center of the valley north of Kern County and with patchy fog elsewhere. Mostly clear Friday through Saturday with occasional high clouds and areas of later night and morning fog, again mainly north of Kern County. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. mostly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. Clearing Monday but with lingering upslope clouds, mainly in Kern County. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Thursday with frosty nights.
Short Term:
| Madera 34/65/35/65 | Reedley 34/66/36/66 | Dinuba 33/64/34/65 | |
| Porterville 34/66/35/66 | Lindsay 32/66/34/67 | Delano 37/67/37/67 | |
| Bakersfield 41/67/43/68 | Arvin 35/68/36/68 | Taft 44/66/44/68 | |
| Lamont 39/67/40/68 | Pixley 35/66/36/67 | Tulare 33/65/34/65 | |
| Woodlake 34/66/35/66 | Hanford 34/66/35/67 | Orosi 34/65/35/66 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Sunday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather for at least the next seven to ten days.
Frost Information: Short term, we can anticipate the status quo as mostly clear skies will prevail tonight for good radiational cooling, lowering temperatures generally into the 30s with low to mid 40s on hillsides. Conditions may be a bit milder Saturday morning as a southerly flow develops. This will drive a cold front southward through California Saturday night but there won’t be any rain. The air mass behind the system is colder, though, and will eventually lead to the first widespread frost event of the season beginning Tuesday morning.
The configuration for Monday and Tuesday indicates an off shore flow at the surface and a brief north/south trajectory for the winds aloft. This is favorable for drier air to move down the valley, lowering dew points, thus subfreezing nights are around the corner. One model places Porterville at 29 degrees Tuesday morning which would lower frost pockets into the mid 20s. generally speaking, this looks like a 26 to 32 degree event for Tuesday and Wednesday with only marginal moderation past Wednesday as a dry air mass settles to the bottom of the valley and the valley is capped by a dome of high pressure. In fact, if all goes as it appears, frost nights could last through next weekend.
The two week outlook came out this afternoon and it continues to show a massive ridge over the western states with an arctic zone east of the Rockies. This pattern will yield above average daytime temperatures with no chance of rain.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
AF |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
AF |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
AF |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
AF |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
Next Report: Friday morning, December 1