December 3, 2017
Summary: A cold low pressure system is located over northeast California and is moving rapidly eastward. The associated cold front moved through the valley during the predawn hours and is already moving into southern California. Clearing is taking place down to about Merced as drier air surges in from the north. Some cloud cover may remain through the night, mainly in Kern County, as strong upslope conditions will prevail. But, as the drier air continues to surge southward, the entire valley will eventually have clear skies.
Model projections indicate below freezing temperatures tonight but generally it will not be a freeze situation at that time. By Monday, a strong surface high will develop over the Great Basin while a very amplified and strong upper high builds northward along the Pacific coast. This will create a northeast flow aloft through Wednesday. The combination of a northeast flow aloft with air moving in from northwest Canada and a strong off shore flow will lower dew points possibly into the upper 20s to the lower 30s Tuesday afternoon. A freeze will occur Tuesday morning as temperatures chill into the 20s. more in the frost discussion below.
The upper high I alluded to earlier will be a semi permanent fixture over and off the west coast for the next ten days. Some modification in the air mass will occur by mid week as highs move into the low to mid 60s, but with the shallow layer of very dry air, overnight lows will still drop into the mid 20s to the lower 30s. for now, I’m just anticipating slight moderation by Friday. So, we’re in for a string of cold nights.
With the blocking ridge, there is almost no chance of rain for the next ten days.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy for a time this morning. Clearing by afternoon with the exception of Kern County and possibly southeast Tulare County. Becoming mostly clear tonight with the possible exception of the extreme south valley. Mostly clear skies will prevail Monday and on through Sunday of next week.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/30/55/25/58 | Reedley 62/31/56/26/58 | Dinuba 61/29/57/25/60 | |
| Porterville 63/29/57/25/58 | Lindsay 63/29/57/24/58 | Delano 63/31/57/26/57 | |
| Bakersfield 63/34/59/32/58 | Arvin 62/28/60/25/59 | Taft 62/35/58/31/58 | |
| Lamont 64/34/59/28/58 | Pixley 62/30/57/26/59 | Tulare 61/29/57/24/57 | |
| Woodlake 62/30/57/26/57 | Hanford 62/30/57/24/58 | Orosi 61/29/58/25/59 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 26/61 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 26/62 |
Friday
Mostly clear 27/61 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 28/65 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 29/68 |
Two Week Outlook: December 9 through December 15: This model shows a big ridge over the west and a big cold trough east of the Rockies. This pattern is very unfavorable for rain, but it is favorable for above average temperatures and areas of night and morning fog.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH today with gusts to 30 MPH along the west side. Winds tonight will be out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH. winds Monday through Wednesday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost: The center of the cold upper low is in northeast California and is moving rapidly eastward. A cold front quickly moved through the valley during the predawn hours along with gusty winds in the northern part of the valley and along the west side. Progressively colder air will move in from the north as two high pressure systems turn the winds both aloft and at the surface off shore. This combo will allow for the infiltration of not only colder air, but more important drier air. Afternoon dew points will probably fall into the mid 20s to the lower 30s by Tuesday, leading to a hard freeze. A shallow layer of relatively cold, dry air will become trapped on the valley floor as a strong upper high caps the valley. This means the air mass will remain in place for several days.
Daytime highs will slowly moderate at midweek, but there will still be a wide spread between daytime highs and overnight lows with subfreezing weather lasting through the work week. Over the weekend, I anticipate some moderation in overnight lows, however below freezing temperatures are still likely.
The upper high is forecast by models to remain for the next ten days or so, so obviously the weather will remain dry with low dew points continuing but with some moderation next week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
34 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
34 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
34 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
36 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
34 |
Kite Road North
32s |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Bakersfield, mid to upper 30s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 45%/95% Bakersfield, 45%/80%
Actual Humidity November 30, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/47%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 60%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 30, 2017: Stratford .54, Parlier .40, Blackwell ., Lindcove .45, Arvin .51, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .39, Delano .NA., Madera Two .38. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 54, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 55, Delano NA, Madera Two 56
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 49.0 +2.0
Record Temperatures: 74/27. Average Temperatures: 58/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 321, -194 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 30, 2017 Fresno: .37 season. or -1.37. Month to Date: .00
Since November 30, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -.93, Month to Date: ..00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 108, Parlier, 119, Arvin, 71, Shafter, 137, Stratford, 120, Madera two, 243, Alpaugh, 131, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 91, Porterville, 222. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:55 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:49
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 65 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 62 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.91 35 4.05 154 2.63 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.98 46 2.99 139 2.15 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.03 50 2.32 114 2.04 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.32 15 2.20 106 2.08 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.37 21 2.05 115 1.78 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.37 24 1.00 65 1.54 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 3 0.62 63 0.99 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 19 0.09 11 0.85 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.75 36 2.56 122 2.09 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.25 14 2.65 152 1.74 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.09 4 2.58 127 2.03 13.95
Next Report: Sunday, December 3/pm