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Forecast

December 3, 2017/pm report

December 3, 2017

Summary: There is a great deal of upslope clouds banking up against the southern Sierra Nevada and the  Kern County mountains this afternoon.  As of the time of this report, it was generally overcast from Visalia southward with clear skies from that point north.  Porterville was reporting an overcast of 5,000 feet while at Bakersfield the overcast was 3,700 feet.  At the upper levels of the atmosphere, the freezing level above Vandenberg was 11,600 feet while up at Oakland the freezing level had fallen to 5,300 feet.

 

Dew points so far this afternoon have fallen into the mid to upper 30s from Visalia northward but were still in the mid 40s at Porterville and Bakersfield.  The main key to tonight’s forecast will be the upslope clouds crammed into the south valley.  Satellite imagery this afternoon is showing breaks in the overcast, especially along the west side, as drier air begins to mix with the cloud deck.  It’s possible some of this cloud cover could remain, mainly over Kern County and southeastern Tulare County.  If this occurs, above freezing conditions will prevail there.  North of those regions, depending on wind conditions, potential upper 20s and lower 30s are possible.

 

Beginning later tonight, a strong off shore flow will develop due to building surface high pressure over the Great Basin.  Meanwhile, a sharp ridge of upper level high pressure will build into western Canada, eventually almost reaching the Arctic Circle.  Arctic air will plunge southward into the middle of the country beginning Tuesday along the back side of the high as a deep trough develops east of the Rockies.

 

Beginning Tuesday morning, temperatures have the potential of dropping into the mid to upper 20s and ditto that for Wednesday and Thursday mornings with only slight modification Friday and through the weekend.  Models do show some increasing clouds by early next week, although this is the first time this has shown up on projections, so I look at that with skepticism.

 

The newest two week model is still calling for a dry weather pattern with high pressure effectively blocking Pacific storms from moving into California.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear skies tonight north of a Visalia/Hanford line with gradual clearing north of Kern County during the night, but possibly remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County.  There is a chance some of this cloud cover could last into Monday morning.  Mostly clear Monday afternoon and on through Sunday of next week.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 31/56/26/58 Reedley 30/57/25/58 Dinuba 29/56/25/57
Porterville 33/57/26/57 Lindsay 31/57/25/57 Delano 33/56/27/58
Bakersfield 39/56/32/58 Arvin 37/57/27/59 Taft 37/58/33/59
Lamont 38/57/28/58 Pixley 32/57/26/58 Tulare 29/57/25/57
Woodlake 29/56/26/58 Hanford 30/57/25/57 Orosi 29/56/25/57

 

Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest this evening at 10 to 15 MPH but with gusts to 25 MPH along the west side.  Winds will die off to around 5 to 15 MPH after midnight with periods of near calm conditions, especially along the far eastern portion of the valley.  Winds Monday through Wednesday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather for at least the next seven to ten days.

 

Frost Information:  From Visalia northward, dew points have lowered into the mid to upper 30s.  South of Visalia and down into Kern County, dew points are still in the low to mid 40s.  Upslope clouds are crammed into the valley, again from roughly Visalia southward.  Skies are clear north of that line.

 

The big question of the hour is whether or not these upslope clouds will mix out.  There is a chance of cloud cover remaining in Kern County and possibly even southeastern Tulare County into tomorrow morning, but that’s by no means a given.  Drier air continues to move in aloft, courtesy of a strong northerly flow.  The flow will become northeasterly aloft Monday and Tuesday as a wave of upper level low pressure races southward through central California.  It will possibly mix down drier air to the surface.  Combine that with a developing off shore flow Monday, and it still appears a hard freeze is likely.

 

Models place Porterville at 28 degrees Tuesday morning, which has been pretty consistent the past few days.  That would put frost pockets down to 23 to 25 with many other locations ranging from 26 to 29.  Ditto that for Wednesday and Thursday mornings and possibly Friday morning.  Slow modification will occur over the weekend.  One model indicates increased cloud cover about Sunday night or Monday, however, it’s the odd model out so I’m hesitant to introduce that possibility.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

33

Ivanhoe

30

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

31

McFarland

33

Ducor

30

Tea Pot Dome

31

Lindsay

29

Exeter

29

Famoso

31

Madera

30

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

34

Orosi

29

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

29

Lindcove hillside

33

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root Creek

29

Venice Hill

30

Rosedale

34

Jasmine

31

Arvin

34

Lamont

35

Plainview

30

Mettler

36

Edison

35

Maricopa

37

Holland Creek

34

Tivy Valley

32

Kite Road South

33

Kite Road North

31

Next Report: Monday morning/December 4