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Forecast

December 4, 2017/report

December 4, 2017

Summary: A stubborn patch of cloud cover remained over much of Tulare County and southern Fresno County overnight.  The base of the overcast has risen to 5,000 feet.  Once it gets that high, typically the clouds begin to evaporate and that’s what I’m anticipating.  Some locations dropped below freezing last night.  the coldest stations, as of the time of this writing, were Fowler at 29 and Madera at 30.  The remainder of the region was generally in the  low to mid 30s.

 

All systems are go for a hard freeze tonight and possibly each night through Friday as drier air will move down the valley due to a strong high centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, creating a northeast flow aloft.  In the meantime, a strong surface high is developing over the Great Basin for a strong off shore flow which will aid in the drying process.

 

A weak upper level low will move southward through central California tonight.  This will also aid in the northeast flow aloft, lowering dew points to the level where the air has the ability to cause temperatures to plummet.  Strong upper level high pressure will be centered over the western states with a ridge building into western Canada far to the north.  Eventually daytime highs will rise to above average, but due to a shallow layer of dry air trapped on the valley floor, overnight lows will continue to be subfreezing throughout the week.

 

The medium range outlook continues to show the same theme with dry weather over the west and high pressure controlling the situation and a big cold trough east of the Rockies.

 

Forecast:   Mostly clear skies through Friday.  mostly clear skies will continue Friday night through Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 56/25/58/24/63 Reedley 57/25/58/24/61 Dinuba 56/26/58/25/61
Porterville 57/26/58/25/62 Lindsay 56/25/58/24/62 Delano 57/27/58/26/62
Bakersfield 58/31/62/30/63 Arvin 59/25/61/25/66 Taft 59/33/63/31/65
Lamont 59/28/65/28/66 Pixley 58/26/59/25/61 Tulare 56/25/58/24/61
Woodlake 56/25/57/25/61 Hanford 57/25/61/24/62 Orosi 56/24/58/24/62

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Mostly clear

26/61

Friday

Mostly clear

27/62

Saturday

Mostly clear

29/65

Sunday

Mostly clear

28/64

Monday

Mostly clear

30/66

 

Two Week Outlook:  December 11 through December 17:  This model shows a big ridge over the west and a big cold trough east of the Rockies.  This pattern is very unfavorable for rain, but it is favorable for above average temperatures and areas of night and morning fog.

 

December:  This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.

 

December, January, February:  If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward.  Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states.  As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.  There may be some locally gusty northerly winds along the I-5 corridor at around 10 to 20 MPH today.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost:  A patch of cloud cover based at near 5,000 feet parked over Tulare County and southern Fresno County overnight.  The overcast continues to rise, meaning the clouds will mix out today, revealing clear skies for the entire region.  Most locations this morning are in the low to mid 30s as of the time of this writing.  Fowler was down to 29 and Madera 30.

 

The stage seems to be set for a very cold batch of nights coming up.  There is a northeast flow aloft rotating around upper level high pressure over the Pacific Northwest.  A strong off shore flow is now in place as a surface high takes shape over the Great Basin.  There is a great deal of cloudiness off shore, but with that northeast flow aloft, they more than likely will not make it into California.

 

The coldest overnight lows tonight could potentially be from 22 to 25 with most locations ranging from 26 to 29 degrees.  The inversion tonight will initially be weak,  but it should tighten up a bit during the early morning hours with temperatures about 4 to 5 degrees warmer at 34 feet.

 

This will be a string of cold nights as a shallow layer of dry air will be trapped under a dome of upper level high pressure.  The high will remain in place for quite some time.  Models are showing this same basic pattern all the way through mid December.  Daytime highs will slowly rise each day, so by the weekend, highs may be warm enough to drag overnight lows up a bit, as well.  Even so, temperatures will likely drop to freezing or below.

 

Next week should be a big milder as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 60s during the day with overnight lows in the upper 20s to the mid 30s.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

25

Porterville

26

Ivanhoe

26

Woodlake

25

Strathmore

25

McFarland

27

Ducor

25

Tea Pot Dome

26

Lindsay

24

Exeter

24

Famoso

26

Madera

25

Belridge

26

Delano

27

North Bakersfield

28

Orosi

25

Orange Cove

26

Lindcove

24

Lindcove Hillside

31

Sanger River Bottom

23

Root Creek

24

Venice Hill

26

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

27

Arvin

25

Lamont

30

Plainview

26

Mettler

31

Edison

27

Maricopa

31

Holland Creek

28

Tivy Valley

25

Kite Road South

29

Kite Road North

26

 

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Bakersfield, low to mid 30s.

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 45%/90%  Bakersfield, 40%/55%

Actual Humidity November 30, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/46%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 90%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 30, 2017: Stratford .51, Parlier .37, Blackwell, 54 Lindcove .43, Arvin .51, Orange Cove .47, Porterville .38, Delano .NA., Madera Two .37.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53, Blackwell 59, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 55, Delano NA, Madera Two 56

 

Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 49.3 +2.8

Record Temperatures: 75/30. Average Temperatures: 58/37

Heating Degree Days this Season: 336, -198 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since November 30, 2017  Fresno: .37 season. or -1.41.  Month to Date: .00

Since November 30, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .03, or -.96,  Month to Date: ..00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 116, Parlier, 130, Arvin, 80, Shafter, 150, Stratford, 132, Madera two, 259, Alpaugh, 144, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 101, Porterville, 236.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:56 am  Sunset: 4:42 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:47

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  61 /  45 /    T /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  64 /  41 /    T /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  58 /  43 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  62 /  41 /    T /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1554 /  59 /  41 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  60 /  40 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1552 /  56 /  46 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                         T    0.91    34    4.05   151     2.69    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.98    45    2.99   136     2.20    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.03    50    2.32   112     2.07    12.50

MADERA                           T    0.32    15    2.20   104     2.12    12.02

FRESNO                           T    0.37    20    2.05   113     1.82    11.50

HANFORD                          T    0.37    24    1.00    64     1.56    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.03     3    0.62    61     1.01     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16    18    0.09    10     0.87     5.18

SALINAS                          T    0.75    35    2.56   120     2.14    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.25    14    2.65   149     1.78    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.09     4    2.58   124     2.08    13.95

 

Next Report: Monday, December 4/pm