December 5, 2017
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is centered just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and continues to build a ridge into western Canada. At the surface, high pressure is centered over northern Nevada and Utah, creating a strong easterly flow across central and southern California. There were some strong, gusty downslope winds in the foothills of Fresno, Madera, and Mariposa Counties where there were reports of trees down in a region known for a lack of wind. These downslope winds moderated temperatures on the valley floor so fortunately readings were a tad warmer than expected. More in the frost report below.
The pattern for at least the next week and, if medium range models are correct, for the next ten days is for a strong blocking ridge of high pressure to continue to cover the western United States and western Canada. This means no chance of rain through possibly mid December with chilly nights, but with temperatures rising to above average during the day.
There will be a wide disparity between daytime highs and overnight lows.
Forecast: Clear skies through Friday with patchy night and morning fog. Mostly clear skies will continue Friday night through Tuesday with patchy night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/26/62/27/63 | Reedley 58/26/62/27/62 | Dinuba 58/25/63/27/64 | |
| Porterville 60/27/63/27/64 | Lindsay 60/26/63/27/65 | Delano 60/29/63/29/66 | |
| Bakersfield 62/34/66/37/68 | Arvin 62/25/66/26/69 | Taft 61/37/66/39/69 | |
| Lamont 62/29/66/29/68 | Pixley 59/27/63/28/64 | Tulare 58/26/63/27/63 | |
| Woodlake 59/27/63/27/65 | Hanford 59/27/63/27/64 | Orosi 58/26/62/27/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 29/63 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 30/64 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 30/65 |
Monday
Mostly clear 31/66 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 32/66 |
Two Week Outlook: December 12 through December 18: This model shows a big ridge over the west and a big cold trough east of the Rockies. This pattern is very unfavorable for rain, but it is favorable for above average temperatures and areas of night and morning fog.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost: The coldest temperature I could find as of 6:00 was 25 at Arvin with most other locations ranging from 27 to 31. There was a considerable amount of downslope winds in the foothills last night, especially from Mariposa County southward to Fresno County. Some downed trees were even reported. This downsloping effect added enough mixing to moderate our temperatures a bit.
These same type of downslope winds may or may not be evident tonight with coldest locations down to 24 to 26 and most locations between 27 and 30.
Temperatures at 34 feet will average 2 to 5 degrees warmer tonight.
Colder locations will hit the freezing mark about 11:00pm to 1:00am with most other locations generally after midnight to 2:00am.
Looking ahead to Thursday and Friday mornings, only slight moderation is expected. Daytime highs will warm well into the 60s. In fact, readings could actually reach the 70 degree mark in Kern County by Thursday or Friday. With daytime highs continuing to warm, I would anticipate overnight lows to slightly moderate each night from Friday on, but still remaining below freezing, at least in the colder locations. Models indicate this will be a very persistent weather pattern for the next week to 10 days. Therefore, daytime highs will be well above average with overnight lows remaining chilly in the dry air mass with at least colder locations dropping to below freezing. Many other locations will be in the low to mid 30s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
26 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
27 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
26 |
Ducor
25 |
Tea Pot Dome
27 |
| Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
26 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
26 |
| Orange Cove
27 |
Lindcove
26 |
Lindcove hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
27 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
27 |
| Arvin
25 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
26 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
28 |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Bakersfield, upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 40%/95% Bakersfield, 30%/75%
Actual Humidity December 3, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/58%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 30, 2017: Stratford .49, Parlier .37, Blackwell, 47 Lindcove .37, Arvin .42, Orange Cove .46, Porterville .33, Delano .NA., Madera Two .37. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 58, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 55, Delano NA, Madera Two 56
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 50.3 +4.0
Record Temperatures: 72/28. Average Temperatures: 58/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 348, -205 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since December 3, 2017 Fresno: .37 season. or -1.45. Month to Date: .T
Since December 3, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -.98, Month to Date: ..00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 121, Parlier, 141, Arvin, 87, Shafter, 164, Stratford, 141, Madera two, 270, Alpaugh, 157, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 108, Porterville, 251. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:57 am Sunset: 4:42 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:46
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 59 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 32 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 56 / 31 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 52 / 32 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 57 / 42 / 0.00
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.91 33 4.05 147 2.75 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.98 44 2.99 133 2.25 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.03 49 2.32 110 2.10 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.32 15 2.20 102 2.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.37 20 2.05 110 1.86 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.37 23 1.00 63 1.58 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 3 0.62 60 1.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 18 0.09 10 0.89 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.75 34 2.56 117 2.19 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.25 14 2.65 145 1.83 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.09 4 2.58 121 2.13 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, December 5/pm