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Forecast

December 7, 2017/report

December 7, 2017

Summary: Temperatures this morning in the citrus belts range from 25 to 31 degrees with most locations from 26 to 29.  More is discussed in the frost section below.

 

We remain and will continue to remain under a strong ridge of upper level high pressure.  The center of this high is right over northern California with the clockwise flow around the high surging from south to north over the Pacific Ocean into Alaska.  It then dives southward into the Midwest and east.  By Saturday, a cut off low will develop off the northern coast of Baja which will have no impact on central California but it will at least give me something to talk about.

 

A strong warm air inversion remains above the valley floor, meaning the dingy, dry air mass will remain indefinitely, even though daytime highs will warm well into the 60s, and possibly even near 70 in Kern County.  Even so, with the current pattern, dew points will remain low so strong radiational cooling will mean sub freezing temperatures through the weekend with only minor modification once we get past Sunday.

 

In the medium term, models just have not budged with dry weather to continue through mid December and possibly above with above average daytime temperatures continuing but with chilly overnight lows.

 

Forecast:   Clear skies today and tonight.  Mostly clear Friday through Monday with occasional high clouds.  Mostly clear skies will continue Tuesday through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 64/28/65/29/66 Reedley 65/28/65/29/66 Dinuba 63/27/65/28/65
Porterville 66/28/65/29/66 Lindsay 65/27/65/28/67 Delano 66/30/65/31/67
Bakersfield 69/38/68/39/69 Arvin 70/26/68/27/68 Taft 68/31/68/40/69
Lamont 68/32/68/34/68 Pixley 66/28/65/29/66 Tulare 63/27/65/29/66
Woodlake 64/27/65/28/66 Hanford 65/29/65/30/66 Orosi 65/28/65/29/67

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

30/65

Monday

Mostly clear

29/64

Tuesday

Mostly clear

31/66

Wednesday

Mostly clear

31/66

Thursday

Mostly clear

30/64

 

Two Week Outlook:  December 13 through December 19:  This model continues to show a big ridge over the west and a big cold trough east of the Rockies.  This pattern is very unfavorable for rain, but it is favorable for above average temperatures and areas of night and morning fog along with sub freezing overnight lows.

 

December:  This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.

 

December, January, February:  If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward.  Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states.  As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost:  As expected, it was cold last night with temperatures ranging from 25 to 31 with most locations ranging from 26 to 29.  I anticipate very little change tonight as that shallow layer of dry air remains on the valley floor, capped by strong upper level high pressure.  Models going out through the 18th of December still indicate a strong ridge of upper level high pressure over the region, blocking any potential storm systems from affecting central California.  As long as this pattern continues, we will have pleasant afternoons with temperatures well  into the 60s and in some cases the lower 70s in Kern County with cold nights.  Coldest locations will still drop below freezing in the longer term.

 

Lows tonight in the very coldest unprotected locations will drop between 25 to 26 degrees with most flat terrain type regions falling into the 27 to 31 degree range with sloped or hillside locations in the 30s.

 

Longer term, as we head into the weekend, I anticipate lows will continue to drop into the 27 to 32 degree range with hillsides well above freezing.  Next week, some modification will occur but with colder locations still dipping below freezing.

 

The inversion tonight will be strong with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 5 to 9 degrees warmer so wind machines will be very affective.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

28

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

27

Woodlake

28

Strathmore

28

McFarland

27

Ducor

27

Tea Pot Dome

28

Lindsay

26

Exeter

27

Famoso

29

Madera

28

Belridge

28

Delano

30

North Bakersfield

31

Orosi

27

Orange Cove

28

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

25

Root Creek

26

Venice Hill

28

Rosedale

31

Jasmine

28

Arvin

25

Lamont

29

Plainview

28

Mettler

31

Edison

29

Maricopa

30

Holland Creek

30

Tivy Valley

28

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

28

 

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Bakersfield, upper 20s to the lower 30s.

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 35%/95%  Bakersfield, 25%/75%

Actual Humidity December 4, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 95%/45%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 90%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 4, 2017: Stratford .49, Parlier .36, Blackwell, 46 Lindcove .36, Arvin .43, Orange Cove .44, Porterville .33, Delano .NA., Madera Two .36.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 58, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 55, Delano NA, Madera Two 56

 

Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 49.8 +2.6

Record Temperatures: 72/28. Average Temperatures: 57/36

Heating Degree Days this Season: 368, -204 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since December 4, 2017  Fresno: .37 season. or -1.49.  Month to Date: .T

Since December 4, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .03, or – 1.01,  Month to Date: ..00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 139, Parlier, 156, Arvin, 101, Shafter, 179, Stratford, 156, Madera two, 287, Alpaugh, 171, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 122, Porterville, 268.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:58 am  Sunset: 4:42 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:45

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  62 /  30 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  62 /  33 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  64 /  29 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  65 /  33 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  63 /  29 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1554 /  64 /  30 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  65 /  31 /    T /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1554 /  64 /  29 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  59 /  33 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.91    32    4.05   141     2.88    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.98    42    2.99   127     2.36    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.03    47    2.32   107     2.17    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.32    14    2.20    99     2.23    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.37    19    2.05   105     1.96    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.37    23    1.00    61     1.63    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.03     3    0.62    56     1.10     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16    17    0.09    10     0.93     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.75    33    2.56   111     2.30    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.25    13    2.65   137     1.93    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.09     4    2.58   115     2.25    13.95

 

 

Next Report: Thursday, December 7/pm