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Forecast

December 8, 2017/report

December 8, 2017

Summary: Temperatures this morning are running from one to four degrees warmer than yesterday at this time.  A thin veil of high clouds moved through overnight which may have modified the situation a bit. Also, the air mass itself is modifying slightly, so temperatures will continue to move upward during the day with slight warming during the overnight hours.

 

Strong upper level high pressure is parked right over northern California this morning.  There’s a mass of high clouds off shore, but satellite imagery clearly shows these high clouds just evaporating off shore.  In the meantime, we have a surface high centered over Idaho this morning, resulting in a continuation of the off shore flow.  That flow has weakened considerably, but will pick up again over the weekend.

 

Medium range models are showing little change all the way through next week.  There is some indication that the high will break down to our north about the 18th of December.  Even so, models are not showing any chance of rain through that time.  We’ll have to wait and see what happens beyond.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear with occasional high clouds through Monday.  Mostly clear Monday night through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 65/29/66/31/66 Reedley 66/29/65/30/66 Dinuba 65/28/66/30/67
Porterville 65/29/66/31/66 Lindsay 67/28/66/30/67 Delano 67/32/66/34/67
Bakersfield 68/38/69/39/70 Arvin 69/29/68/31/71 Taft 68/35/68/37/70
Lamont 69/34/68/36/70 Pixley 67/29/66/31/67 Tulare 65/28/66/31/65
Woodlake 65/29/66/31/67 Hanford 67/31/66/34/67 Orosi 65/28/66/30/66

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

31/65

Tuesday

Mostly clear

32/64

Wednesday

Mostly clear

33/66

Thursday

Mostly clear

32/66

Friday

Mostly clear

31/67

 

Two Week Outlook:  December 14 through December 20:  This model continues to show a big ridge over the west and a big cold trough east of the Rockies.  This pattern is very unfavorable for rain, but it is favorable for above average temperatures and areas of night and morning fog along with sub-freezing overnight lows.

 

December:  This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.

 

December, January, February:  If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward.  Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states.  As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost:  Temperatures this morning, as of 6:00am, were running 1 to 4 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time.  We did have some high clouds at times last night which may have played a role.  The air mass may finally be modifying just a tad, which may have resulted in minor warming.

 

Most locations ranged from 26 to 31 with a few locations actually above freezing.

 

There is a wall of high clouds just off the central and southern California coast.  However, that upper high is eating them alive with only occasionally high, thin clouds managing to overrun the high.  If these clouds extend a bit farther towards the east, it would definitely modify the situation, but as of now I just don’t see this happening.

 

I’m going to operate under the assumption skies will be mostly clear again tonight with coldest locations down to 26/27 with typical flatland locations ranging from 28 to 33.  Hillside readings will be above freezing.

 

The inversion tonight will be strong with temperatures at least 5 to 8 degrees warmer at 34 feet.

 

Looking into the future, models show strong upper level high pressure remaining along the west coast for generally clear skies.  Highs will reach into the mid to upper 60s this afternoon, reaching that level throughout the weekend, with even some low 70s down in Kern County.  This will gradually modify overnight lows over the next couple of nights with some locations reaching above freezing levels.  As the air mass continues to modify, most locations by early next week should rise to above freezing but with the coldest locations still in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

28

Porterville

29

Ivanhoe

29

Woodlake

28

Strathmore

30

McFarland

28

Ducor

28

Tea Pot Dome

29

Lindsay

28

Exeter

28

Famoso

31

Madera

30

Belridge

29

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

34

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

27

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

33

Jasmine

29

Arvin

30

Lamont

31

Plainview

28

Mettler

AF

Edison

30

Maricopa

32

Holland Creek

34

Tivy Valley

30

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

29

 

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Bakersfield, upper 20s to the lower 30s.

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 35%/85%  Bakersfield, 25%/65%

Actual Humidity December 6, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/23%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 90%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 6, 2017: Stratford .48, Parlier .37, Blackwell, .47 Lindcove .36, Arvin .42, Orange Cove .44, Porterville .34, Delano .NA., Madera Two .35.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 54, Delano NA, Madera Two 55

 

Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 47.7 +1.5

Record Temperatures: 69/25. Average Temperatures: 57/36

Heating Degree Days this Season: 407, -203 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since December 6, 2017  Fresno: .37 season. or -1.59.  Month to Date: T

Since December 6, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .03, or – 1.07,  Month to Date: ..00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 166, Parlier, 186, Arvin, 130, Shafter, 209, Stratford, 185, Madera two, 321, Alpaugh, 201, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 152, Porterville, 300.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:59 am  Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:45

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  64 /  29 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  62 /  32 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  63 /  28 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  67 /  35 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  62 /  29 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1558 /  67 /  32 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  65 /  31 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1559 /  63 /  32 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  63 /  33 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.91    31    4.09   139     2.94    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.98    40    3.00   124     2.42    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.03    47    2.32   105     2.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.32    14    2.21    97     2.28    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.37    18    2.05   102     2.01    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.37    22    1.00    60     1.66    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.03     3    0.62    55     1.13     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16    17    0.09     9     0.95     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.75    32    2.56   108     2.36    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.25    13    2.65   134     1.98    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.09     4    2.58   111     2.32    13.95

 

Next Report: Friday, December 8/pm