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Forecast

December 10, 2017/report

December 10, 2017

Summary: Temperatures were well down into the mid to upper 20s at several locations as of 6:00am.  Kern County was the exception where most locations were in the low to mid 30s.  the air continues to be quite warm aloft.  To illustrate this, the temperature at Sandberg at an elevation of 4,100 feet was reported to be 53 at 6:00am while the valley floor was in the 20s and 30s.

 

Upper level high pressure remains in place over the western United States and Canada.  A cut off low is developing off the northern coast of Baja and is throwing high clouds over southern California, but just some high, thin clouds as far north as Tulare County.  This feature will move into northwest Mexico and just park there through midweek.  The counterclockwise circulation around this will result in the ongoing easterly flow over central and southern California.

 

By late in the workweek, the low will have moved inland with a dominant area of high pressure.  However, the high will drift off shore, turning the winds aloft from easterly to northerly.  As long as this high is in this position, dry weather with above average daytime temperatures will continue with strong radiational cooling during the overnight hours and subfreezing conditions at most citrus frost stations.

 

By late next week, the high will break down over the Pacific Northwest, allowing rain to return to that region, but thus far models are not showing precipitation far enough south to help our pitiful rainfall totals.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear through Wednesday with occasional high clouds.  Mostly clear Wednesday night through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 64/29/66/30/65 Reedley 65/29/65/30/65 Dinuba 63/28/66/29/65
Porterville 65/29/66/29/65 Lindsay 65/28/66/29/65 Delano 66/31/66/31/66
Bakersfield 65/37/66/37/67 Arvin 66/34/67/35/67 Taft 67/43/66/42/67
Lamont 67/33/66/33/67 Pixley 65/29/66/29/65 Tulare 64/28/65/28/65
Woodlake 64/28/66/29/65 Hanford 65/30/66/30/65 Orosi 64/28/66/28/64

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Mostly clear

30/64

Thursday

Mostly clear

31/65

Friday

Mostly clear

30/65

Saturday

Mostly clear

32/64

Sunday

Mostly clear

31/65

 

Two Week Outlook:  December 14 through December 20:  This model continues to show a big ridge over the west and a big cold trough east of the Rockies.  This pattern is very unfavorable for rain, but it is favorable for above average temperatures and areas of night and morning fog along with sub-freezing overnight lows.

 

December:  This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.

 

December, January, February:  If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward.  Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states.  As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost:  Temperatures in the citrus belts of Fresno and Tulare Counties were in the 26 to 30 range as of 6:00am.  In Kern County, temperatures were generally in the 30 to 36 degree range.  Tonight will be very similar, but we do have plenty of cloud cover moving northward through southern California.  However, outside of high, thin clouds at times, skies will remain mostly sunny as most projections only show significant cloud cover moving as far north as the Antelope Valley, leaving central California generally clear.

 

The inversion tonight will  be great again tonight with temperatures 5 to 9 degrees warmer at 34 feet.  I look for subfreezing weather each night through at least the middle of next week as the dry air mass will remain with all of its haze and smog.

 

We may see a bit of modification from Thursday on as some projections show dew points rising into possibly the upper 30s to the lower 40s which would at least marginally help.

 

Medium range models show dry weather continuing as that big high acts as an effective blockade.

 

Lows will depend on dew points as skies will be mostly clear, but for now, several more days of subfreezing weather, mainly in Tulare and Fresno Counties, will continue with Kern County generally in the low to mid 30s.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

27

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

28

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

28

McFarland

27

Ducor

27

Tea Pot Dome

29

Lindsay

27

Exeter

27

Famoso

30

Madera

29

Belridge

29

Delano

30

North Bakersfield

31

Orosi

27

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

25

Root Creek

27

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

33

Jasmine

29

Arvin

34

Lamont

33

Plainview

28

Mettler

AF

Edison

30

Maricopa

AF

Holland Creek

32

Tivy Valley

29

Kite Road South

33

Kite Road North

29

 

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Bakersfield, upper 20s to the lower 30s.

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 40%/90%  Bakersfield, 25%/65%

Actual Humidity December 7, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/23%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 80%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 7, 2017: Stratford .51, Parlier .39, Blackwell, .50 Lindcove .38, Arvin .46, Orange Cove .45, Porterville .35, Delano .NA., Madera Two .37.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 52, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 53, Delano NA, Madera Two 54

 

Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 47.6 +1.8

Record Temperatures: 70/23. Average Temperatures: 56/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 441, -209 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since December 7, 2017  Fresno: .37 season. or -1.69.  Month to Date: T

Since December 7, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .03, or -1.13,  Month to Date: ..00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 192, Parlier, 213, Arvin, 157, Shafter, 247, Stratford, 247, Madera two, 352, Alpaugh, 239, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 181, Porterville, 331.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:01 am  Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:43

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  64 /  31 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  64 /  34 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  65 /  30 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DHM    /   M /   M / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  67 /  35 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  63 /  32 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1554 /  69 /  34 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  66 /  31 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1554 /  62 /  42 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.91    31    4.09   139     2.94    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.98    40    3.00   124     2.42    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.03    47    2.32   105     2.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.32    14    2.21    97     2.28    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.37    18    2.05   102     2.01    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.37    22    1.00    60     1.66    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.03     3    0.62    55     1.13     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16    17    0.09     9     0.95     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.75    32    2.56   108     2.36    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.25    13    2.65   134     1.98    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.09     4    2.58   111     2.32    13.95

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.91    31    4.09   139     2.94    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.98    40    3.00   124     2.42    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.03    47    2.32   105     2.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.32    14    2.21    97     2.28    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.37    18    2.05   102     2.01    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.37    22    1.00    60     1.66    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.03     3    0.62    55     1.13     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16    17    0.09     9     0.95     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.75    32    2.56   108     2.36    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.25    13    2.65   134     1.98    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.09     4    2.58   111     2.32    13.95

 

Next Report: Sunday, December 10/pm