December 11, 2017
Summary: There are two high pressure systems, each is centered over the Great Basin. The first is the high in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The second is a surface high which is maintaining an easterly flow over central and southern California. In the meantime, there’s a cut off low centered over northern Baja this morning. It’s a dry system but is pumping a lot of high clouds into southern California with some high, thin clouds evident over central California, mainly from Fresno southward. This feature is expected to weaken and remain in place for the next few days, contributing to the off shore flow.
Medium range models show high pressure sticking around and blocking any possibility of storms moving in. the only difference is the upper high will back up into the eastern Pacific Ocean with the western United States on the eastern flank of the high. Medium range models going out through next week are indicating a blocking ridge will be along the west coast with no chance of precipitation. The two week outlook which takes us through Christmas Eve gives little chance of precipitation with above average daytime temperatures continuing.
Forecast: Outside of some high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear through tonight. Generally clear skies will prevail Tuesday through next Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/30/65/30/66 | Reedley 66/29/65/30/65 | Dinuba 65/28/65/29/65 | |
| Porterville 67/29/67/30/65 | Lindsay 66/28/66/29/65 | Delano 68/31/68/32/66 | |
| Bakersfield 70/37/69/37/66 | Arvin 70/35/68/35/66 | Taft 69/39/66/40/66 | |
| Lamont 70/36/69/36/66 | Pixley 67/29/66/30/67 | Tulare 65/29/66/30/65 | |
| Woodlake 66/29/66/30/65 | Hanford 66/30/65/31/65 | Orosi 65/28/65/29/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 30/66 |
Friday
Mostly clear 31/67 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 32/66 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 33/67 |
Monday
Mostly clear 33/65 |
Two Week Outlook: December 18 through December 24: This model continues to show a big ridge over the west and a big cold trough east of the Rockies. This pattern is very unfavorable for rain, but it is favorable for above average temperatures and areas of night and morning fog along with sub-freezing overnight lows.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost: As of 600am, there was a wide variety of temperatures. The coldest I could find was at Lindcove with a reading of 26. Many locations from central Tulare County to Madera County were in the 28 to 30 degree range while southern Tulare County and Kern County were generally above freezing.
Dew points have been creeping up over the past 48 hours. Therefore, I’ll bump temperatures up a degree or two at most locations for this forecast.
There will be another day of high clouds, lasting through tonight, but forecast models show a weakening low off of Baja which will lead to clear skies from Tuesday on. A layer of shallow, dry air remains trapped on the valley floor. There will continue to be a wide gap between daytime and nighttime temperatures.
Coldest temperatures tonight should range from 27 to 28 with most flatland locations in Tulare County through Madera County in the 29 to 32 degree range. In Kern County, most locations will again be above freezing.
The inversion tonight will again be strong with readings at 34 feet ranging from 5 to 8 degrees warmer.
Looking ahead over the next several days, slight modification may occur, but I still anticipate colder locations to be below freezing, ranging from 28 to 32 with most locations to be in the low to mid 30s. Long range models are still showing a blocking ridge of high pressure, so the dry air mass will continue with a wide range between daytime highs and overnight lows.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
28 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Bakersfield, low to mid 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 35%/95% Bakersfield, 30%/65%
Actual Humidity December 8, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 8, 2017: Stratford .52, Parlier .40, Blackwell, .51 Lindcove .39, Arvin .47, Orange Cove .45, Porterville .35, Delano .NA., Madera Two .37. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 51, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 52, Delano NA, Madera Two 53
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 47.6 +1.8
Record Temperatures: 74/26. Average Temperatures: 56/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 458, -212 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since December 8, 2017 Fresno: .37 season. or -1.74. Month to Date: T
Since December 8, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -1.16, Month to Date: ..00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 207, Parlier, 227, Arvin, 170, Shafter, 262, Stratford, 247, Madera two, 367, Alpaugh, 254, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 196, Porterville, 346. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:02 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 29 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 68 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 32 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 68 / 32 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 30 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 62 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.91 29 4.64 148 3.14 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.98 38 3.65 140 2.60 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.03 45 3.08 133 2.31 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.32 13 2.67 111 2.41 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.37 17 2.44 113 2.16 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.37 21 1.09 62 1.75 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 2 0.66 54 1.22 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 16 0.09 9 1.01 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.75 30 3.00 118 2.54 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.25 12 2.68 125 2.15 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.09 4 3.09 124 2.50 13.95
FRESNO 0.00 0.37 18 2.05 102 2.01 11.50
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 3 0.62 55 1.13 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 17 0.09 9 0.95 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.75 32 2.56 108 2.36 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.25 13 2.65 134 1.98 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.09 4 2.58 111 2.32 13.95
Next Report: Monday, December 11/pm